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A new leadership share measure for price discovery

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  • Lien, Donald
  • Roseman, Brian
  • Shi, Yanlin

Abstract

We propose a new measure of price discovery, New Leadership Share (NLS), that attributes permanent information flow to individual markets using a uniquely identified structural moving average model. NLS quantifies each market’s contribution to permanent price innovations as a proportion of total informational leadership and offers key technical advantages, including uniqueness and adherence to standard statistical asymptotics. We derive closed-form solutions and analytical standard errors for bivariate markets and provide a framework that extends naturally to multiple markets without the variable ordering problem. Simulation results show that NLS consistently outperforms three widely used benchmarks. Empirical analysis of 2023 data finds that exchange-traded funds and front-month futures markets share equal leadership relative to the S&P 500 spot index.

Suggested Citation

  • Lien, Donald & Roseman, Brian & Shi, Yanlin, 2025. "A new leadership share measure for price discovery," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:180:y:2025:i:c:s0378426625001475
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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