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The skewness of commodity futures returns

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  • Fernandez-Perez, Adrian
  • Frijns, Bart
  • Fuertes, Ana-Maria
  • Miffre, Joelle

Abstract

This article studies the relation between the skewness of commodity futures returns and expected returns. A trading strategy that takes long positions in commodity futures with the most negative skew and shorts those with the most positive skew generates significant excess returns that remain after controlling for exposure to well-known risk factors. A tradeable skewness factor explains the cross-section of commodity futures returns beyond exposures to standard risk premia. The impact that skewness has on future returns is explained by investors’ preferences for skewness under cumulative prospect theory and selective hedging practices.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Frijns, Bart & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joelle, 2018. "The skewness of commodity futures returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 143-158.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:86:y:2018:i:c:p:143-158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.06.015
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonato, Matteo & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2018. "Gold futures returns and realized moments: A forecasting experiment using a quantile-boosting approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 196-212.
    2. Zaremba, Adam & Mikutowski, Mateusz & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Osman, Mohamed, 2019. "Picking winners to pick your winners: The momentum effect in commodity risk factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joëlle, 2019. "A comprehensive appraisal of style-integration methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 134-150.
    4. Mo, Xuan & Su, Zhi & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Can the skewness of oil returns affect stock returns? Evidence from China’s A-Share markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Ahn, Jung-Hyun & Six, Pierre, 2019. "A study of first generation commodity indices: Indices based on financial diversification," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 194-200.
    6. Jiang, Xue & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2019. "Can skewness predict currency excess returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 628-641.
    7. Marinela Adriana Finta & José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2018. "Commodity Return Predictability: evidence from implied variance, skewness and their risk premia and their risk premia," Working Papers Series 479, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    8. Adnen Ben Nasr & Matteo Bonato & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2019. "Investor Sentiment and Crash Risk in Safe Havens," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(6), pages 97-108.
    9. Yin, Libo & Wang, Yang, 2019. "Forecasting the oil prices: What is the role of skewness risk?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    10. Ali, Heba, 2019. "Does downside risk matter more in asset pricing? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 154-174.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Skewness; Commodities; Futures pricing; Selective hedging;

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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