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Modelling energy spot prices by Lévy semistationary processes

Author

Listed:
  • Ole E. Barndorff–Nielsen

    (Thiele Center, Department of Mathematical Sciences and CREATES)

  • Fred Espen Benth

    (Centre of Mathematics for Applications, University of Oslo and Faculty of Economics University of Agder)

  • Almut E. D. Veraart

    (CREATES, School of Economics and Management Aarhus University)

Abstract

This paper introduces a new modelling framework for energy spot prices based on Lévy semistationary processes. Lévy semistationary processes are special cases of the general class of ambit processes. We provide a detailed analysis of the probabilistic properties of such models and we show how they are able to capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. Furthermore, we derive forward prices based on our spot price model. As it turns out, many of the classical spot models can be embedded into our novel modelling framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Ole E. Barndorff–Nielsen & Fred Espen Benth & Almut E. D. Veraart, 2010. "Modelling energy spot prices by Lévy semistationary processes," CREATES Research Papers 2010-18, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2010-18
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    File URL: https://repec.econ.au.dk/repec/creates/rp/10/rp10_18.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen, 2016. "Assessing Gamma kernels and BSS/LSS processes," CREATES Research Papers 2016-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Pan, Zhiyuan & Liu, Li, 2018. "Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 168-180.
    3. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth, 2012. "Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8457, August.
    4. Luo, Jiawen & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Ji, Qiang & Klein, Tony, 2023. "Co-volatility and asymmetric transmission of risks between the global oil and China's futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Sanjay Sehgal & Neharika Sobti & Florent Diesting, 2021. "Who leads in intraday gold price discovery and volatility connectedness: Spot, futures, or exchange‐traded fund?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1092-1123, July.
    6. Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2011. "Brownian Semistationary Processes And Conditional Full Support," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(04), pages 579-586.
    7. Sobti, Neharika & Sehgal, Sanjay & Ilango, Balakrishnan, 2021. "How do macroeconomic news surprises affect round-the-clock price discovery of gold?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy markets; forward price; Lévy semistationary process; stochastic integration; spot price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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