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Estimating Dynamic Models of Quit Behavior: The Case of Military Reenlistment

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  • Daula, Thomas
  • Moffitt, Robert

Abstract

The authors estimate the effect of financial incentives for reenlistment on military retention rates using a stochastic dynamic programming model. They show that the computational burden of the model is relatively low even when estimated on panel data with unobserved heterogeneity. The estimates of the model show strong effects of military compensation, especially of retirement pay, on retention rates. The authors also compare their model with simpler-to-compute models and find that all give approximately the same fit but that their dynamic programming model gives more plausible predictions of policy measures that affect military and civilian compensation at future dates. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Daula, Thomas & Moffitt, Robert, 1995. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Quit Behavior: The Case of Military Reenlistment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(3), pages 499-523, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:v:13:y:1995:i:3:p:499-523
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gotz, Glenn A, 1990. "The Dynamics of Job Separation: The Case of Federal Employees: Comment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 263-268, July-Sept.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Hansen & Jennie Wenger, 2005. "Is the pay responsiveness of enlisted personnel decreasing?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 29-43.
    2. Asch, Beth & Haider, Steven J. & Zissimopoulos, Julie, 2005. "Financial incentives and retirement: evidence from federal civil service workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 427-440, February.
    3. Bradley M. Gray & James E. Grefer, 2012. "Career Earnings And Retention Of U.S. Military Physicians," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 51-76, February.
    4. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Manuel S. Santos, 2006. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 93-119, January.
    5. Yang Li & Walter J. Mayer, 2007. "Impact of corrections for dynamic selection bias on forecasts of retention behavior," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 571-582.
    6. Kerkhofs, Marcel & Lindeboom, Maarten & Theeuwes, Jules, 1999. "Retirement, financial incentives and health," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 203-227, June.
    7. Le-Yu Chen, 2009. "Identification of structural dynamic discrete choice models," CeMMAP working papers CWP08/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Saul Pleeter & John T. Warner, 2001. "The Personal Discount Rate: Evidence from Military Downsizing Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 33-53, March.
    9. repec:eee:hapoch:v1_457 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Keane, Michael P. & Todd, Petra E. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2011. "The Structural Estimation of Behavioral Models: Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Methods and Applications," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier.
    11. Krebs, Tom & Maloney, William F., 1999. "Quitting and labor turnover : microeconomic evidence and macroeconomic consequences," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2068, The World Bank.
    12. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2003. "Option Value and Dynamic Programming Model Estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance Application Timing," IZA Discussion Papers 941, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Carrell, Scott E., 2007. "The national internal labor market encounters the local labor market: Effects on employee retention," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 774-787, October.
    14. Borgschulte, Mark & Martorell, Paco, 2016. "Paying to Avoid Recession: Using Reenlistment to Estimate the Cost of Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 9680, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    15. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2003. "Dynamic Modeling of the SSDI Application Timing Decision: The Importance of Policy Variables," IZA Discussion Papers 942, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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