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Estimating Dynamic Models of Quit Behavior: The Case of Military Reenlistment

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  • Daula, Thomas
  • Moffitt, Robert

Abstract

The authors estimate the effect of financial incentives for reenlistment on military retention rates using a stochastic dynamic programming model. They show that the computational burden of the model is relatively low even when estimated on panel data with unobserved heterogeneity. The estimates of the model show strong effects of military compensation, especially of retirement pay, on retention rates. The authors also compare their model with simpler-to-compute models and find that all give approximately the same fit but that their dynamic programming model gives more plausible predictions of policy measures that affect military and civilian compensation at future dates. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

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  • Daula, Thomas & Moffitt, Robert, 1995. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Quit Behavior: The Case of Military Reenlistment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(3), pages 499-523, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:v:13:y:1995:i:3:p:499-523
    DOI: 10.1086/298383
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stock, James H & Wise, David A, 1990. "Pensions, the Option Value of Work, and Retirement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1151-1180, September.
    2. Gotz, Glenn A, 1990. "The Dynamics of Job Separation: The Case of Federal Employees: Comment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 263-268, July-Sept.
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    1. Asch, Beth J & Warner, John T, 2001. "A Theory of Compensation and Personnel Policy in Hierarchical Organizations with Application to the United States Military," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(3), pages 523-562, July.
    2. Bradley M. Gray & James E. Grefer, 2012. "Career Earnings And Retention Of U.S. Military Physicians," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 51-76, February.
    3. Glaser, Darrell J. & Rahman, Ahmed S., 2023. "Between the dockyard and the deep blue sea—Retention and personnel economics in the Royal Navy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Le-Yu Chen, 2009. "Identification of structural dynamic discrete choice models," CeMMAP working papers CWP08/09, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Manuel S. Santos, 2006. "Convergence Properties of the Likelihood of Computed Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 93-119, January.
    6. Jeffrey S. Smith & James E. West, 2012. "Retirement Pay and Officer Retention," NBER Working Papers 18502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Renaud Bellais & Martial Foucault & Jean-Michel Oudot, 2014. "Économie de la défense," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01052607, HAL.
    8. Blundell, R. & French, E. & Tetlow, G., 2016. "Retirement Incentives and Labor Supply," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 457-566, Elsevier.
    9. Keane, Michael P. & Todd, Petra E. & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2011. "The Structural Estimation of Behavioral Models: Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Methods and Applications," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 4, pages 331-461, Elsevier.
    10. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2003. "Dynamic Modeling of the SSDI Application Timing Decision: The Importance of Policy Variables," IZA Discussion Papers 942, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Stephen L. Mehay & Paul F. Hogan, 1998. "The Effect of Separation Bonuses on Voluntary Quits: Evidence from the Military's Downsizing," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 127-139, July.
    12. Tomasz Jedynak, 2022. "Does the Formulation of the Decision Problem Affect Retirement?—Framing Effect and Planned Retirement Age," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-30, February.
    13. Saul Pleeter & John T. Warner, 2001. "The Personal Discount Rate: Evidence from Military Downsizing Programs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 33-53, March.
    14. Krebs, Tom & Maloney, William F., 1999. "Quitting and labor turnover : microeconomic evidence and macroeconomic consequences," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2068, The World Bank.
    15. Seyed Morteza Emadi & Bradley R. Staats, 2020. "A Structural Estimation Approach to Study Agent Attrition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 4071-4095, September.
    16. Michael Hansen & Jennie Wenger, 2005. "Is the pay responsiveness of enlisted personnel decreasing?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 29-43.
    17. Asch, Beth & Haider, Steven J. & Zissimopoulos, Julie, 2005. "Financial incentives and retirement: evidence from federal civil service workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 427-440, February.
    18. Yang Li & Walter J. Mayer, 2007. "Impact of corrections for dynamic selection bias on forecasts of retention behavior," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 571-582.
    19. Kerkhofs, Marcel & Lindeboom, Maarten & Theeuwes, Jules, 1999. "Retirement, financial incentives and health," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 203-227, June.
    20. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2003. "Option Value and Dynamic Programming Model Estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance Application Timing," IZA Discussion Papers 941, IZA Network @ LISER.
    21. Carrell, Scott E., 2007. "The national internal labor market encounters the local labor market: Effects on employee retention," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 774-787, October.
    22. Mark Borgschulte & Paco Martorell, 2018. "Paying to Avoid Recession: Using Reenlistment to Estimate the Cost of Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 101-127, July.
    23. Denis Fougère & Pierre Gouëdard, 2021. "The effects of financial incentives and disincentives on teachers' retirement decisions: Evidence from the 2003 French pension reform," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03465859, HAL.

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