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Option Value and Dynamic Programming Model Estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance Application Timing

  • Burkhauser, Richard V.

    ()

    (Cornell University)

  • Butler, J. S.

    ()

    (University of Kentucky)

  • Gumus, Gulcin

    ()

    (Florida Atlantic University)

This paper develops dynamic structural models - an option value model and a dynamic programming model - of the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) application timing decision. We estimate the time to application from the point at which a health condition first begins to affect the kind or amount of work that a currently employed person can do. We use Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and restricted access Social Security earnings data for estimation. Based on tests of both in-sample and out-of-sample predictive accuracy, our option value model performs better than both our dynamic programming model and our reduced form hazard model.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 941.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp941
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  3. Richard V. Burkhauser & Mary C. Daly & Andrew J. Houtenville & Nigar Nargis, 2002. "Self-reported work limitation data: what they can and cannot tell us," Working Paper Series 2002-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  5. Richard V. Burkhauser & J. S. Butler & Yang-Woo Kim & Robert R. Weathers II, 1999. "The Importance of Accommodation on the Timing of Disability Insurance Applications: Results from the Survey of Disability and Work and the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(3), pages 589-611.
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  7. James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1988. "The Pension Inducement to Retire: An Option Value Analysis," NBER Working Papers 2660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  9. Berkovec, James & Stern, Steven, 1991. "Job Exit Behavior of Older Men," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 189-210, January.
  10. Bound, John & Waidmann, Timothy, 1992. "Disability Transfers, Self-Reported Health, and the Labor Force Attachment of Older Men: Evidence from the Historical Record," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1393-419, November.
  11. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1994. "Retirement Incentives: The Interaction between Employer-Provided Pensions, Social Security, and Retiree Health Benefits," NBER Working Papers 4613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Hugo Ben�tez-Silva & Moshe Buchinsky & Hiu Man Chan & Sofia Cheidvasser & John Rust, 2004. "How large is the bias in self-reported disability?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 649-670.
  13. Gruber, Jonathan & Kubik, Jeffrey D., 1997. "Disability insurance rejection rates and the labor supply of older workers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 1-23, April.
  14. Bound, John & Burkhauser, Richard V., 1999. "Economic analysis of transfer programs targeted on people with disabilities," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 51, pages 3417-3528 Elsevier.
  15. Kreider, Brent, 1998. "Workers' Applications to Social Insurance Programs When Earnings and Eligibility Are Uncertain," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 848-77, October.
  16. James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1988. "Pensions, The Option Value of Work, and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 2686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  18. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Moshe Buchinsky & Hiu-Man Chan & John Rust & Sofia Sheivasser, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Social Security Disability Application, Appeal, and Award Process," Public Economics 9712001, EconWPA, revised 16 Feb 1998.
  19. John Bound & Richard Burkhauser & Austin Nichols, 2001. "Tracking the Household Income of SSDI and SSI Applicants," Working Papers wp009, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  20. Kreider, Brent, 1999. "Social Security Disability Insurance: Applications, Awards, and Lifetime Income Flows," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(4), pages 784-827, October.
  21. Parsons, Donald O, 1980. "The Decline in Male Labor Force Participation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 117-34, February.
  22. Jonathan Gruber & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 1994. "Disability Insurance Rejection Rates and the Labor Supply of Older Workers," NBER Working Papers 4941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Kreider, Brent & Riphahn, Regina, 2000. "Explaining Applications to the U.S. Disability Program: A Semiparametric Approach," Staff General Research Papers 5184, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  26. Daula, Thomas & Moffitt, Robert, 1995. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Quit Behavior: The Case of Military Reenlistment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(3), pages 499-523, July.
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