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Option Value and Dynamic Programming Model Estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance Application Timing

Author

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  • Burkhauser, Richard V.

    () (Cornell University)

  • Butler, J. S.

    () (University of Kentucky)

  • Gumus, Gulcin

    () (Florida Atlantic University)

Abstract

This paper develops dynamic structural models - an option value model and a dynamic programming model - of the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) application timing decision. We estimate the time to application from the point at which a health condition first begins to affect the kind or amount of work that a currently employed person can do. We use Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and restricted access Social Security earnings data for estimation. Based on tests of both in-sample and out-of-sample predictive accuracy, our option value model performs better than both our dynamic programming model and our reduced form hazard model.

Suggested Citation

  • Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2003. "Option Value and Dynamic Programming Model Estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance Application Timing," IZA Discussion Papers 941, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp941
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rob Euwals & Daniel Vuuren & Ronald Wolthoff, 2010. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence From a Policy Reform," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 209-236, September.
    2. Michele Belloni & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Retirement Choices in Italy: What an Option Value Model Tells Us," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(4), pages 499-527, August.
    3. MacDonald, Bonnie-Jeanne & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2011. "Three retirement decision models for defined contribution pension plan members: A simulation study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Hakola, Tuulia, 2002. "Alternative Approaches to Model Withdrawals from the Labour Market – A Literature Review," Working Paper Series 2003:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    5. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2003. "Dynamic Modeling of the SSDI Application Timing Decision: The Importance of Policy Variables," IZA Discussion Papers 942, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    6. Börsch-Supan, A. & Härtl, K. & Leite, D.N., 2016. "Social Security and Public Insurance," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Security Disability Insurance; Health and Retirement Survey; option value; dynamic programming;

    JEL classification:

    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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