Retirement Choices in Italy: What an Option Value Model Tells Us
Using Italian data this study estimates the option value model in order to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. As far as we know, this is the first empirical study which estimates the conditional multiple-years (CMY) model put forward by Stock and Wise (1990). This implies that we have accounted for dynamic self-selection bias. For the subsample of females the CMY model yields plausible estimates of the preference parameters such as the marginal utility of leisure. This last parameter is typically underestimated if one does not take into account the self-selection problem. From our results it becomes clear that dynamic self-selection results in a considerable downward-bias in the estimate of the marginal utility of leisure. We also performed a simulation study to gauge the effects of a dramatic pension reform. It turns out that the underestimation of the marginal utility of leisure translates into a sizable overprediction of the impact of the reform. For males we also obtain plausible estimates. The results for males should be interpreted with caution because we are not able to fully correct for dynamic self-selection bias.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 75 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Manor Rd. Building, Oxford, OX1 3UQ|
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0305-9049|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Belloni, Michele & Alessie, Rob, 2009.
"The importance of financial incentives on retirement choices: New evidence for Italy,"
Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 578-588, October.
- M. Belloni & R. Alessie, 2008. "The Importance of Financial Incentives on Retirement Choices: New Evidence for Italy," Working Papers 08-10, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Angus S. Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan," NBER Chapters,in: Studies in the Economics of Aging, pages 331-362 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deaton, A.S. & Paxson, C.H., 1992. "Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan," Papers 161, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Angus Deaton & Christina H. Paxson, 1993. "Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 4330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2003. "Social Security Wealth and Retirement Decisions in Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 79-114, August.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006. "Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2187-2212, December.
- Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006. "Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Richard V. Burkhauser & J. S. Butler & Gulcin Gumus, 2004. "Dynamic programming model estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance application timing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 671-685.
- Arjan Heyma, 2004. "A structural dynamic analysis of retirement behaviour in the Netherlands," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 739-759.
- Brugiavini, Agar & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2004. "The social security reform process in Italy: where do we stand?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 165-195, July.
- Agar Brugiavini & Vincenzo Galasso, 2003. "The Social Security Reform Process in Italy: Where do We Stand?," Working Papers wp052, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, March.
- Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, December.
- Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1992. "Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity versus Predictive Validity," NBER Chapters,in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 21-60 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1990. "Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity Versus Predictive Validity," NBER Working Papers 3558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rob Euwals & Daniel Vuuren & Ronald Wolthoff, 2010. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence From a Policy Reform," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 209-236, September.
- Rob Euwals & Daniel van Vuuren & Ronald Wolthoff, 2005. "Early retirement behaviour in the Netherlands; evidence from a policy reform," CPB Discussion Paper 52, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Euwals, Rob & van Vuuren, Daniel & Wolthoff, Ronald, 2006. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands - Evidence from a Policy Reform," CEPR Discussion Papers 5596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Euwals, Rob & van Vuuren, Daniel & Wolthoff, Ronald P., 2006. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence from a Policy Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 1992, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Rob Euwals & Daniel J. van Vuuren & Ronald P. Wolthoff, 2006. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence from a Policy Reform," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-021/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Agar Brugiavini, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Italy," NBER Chapters,in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 181-237 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Agar Brugiavini, 1997. "Social Security and Retirement in Italy," NBER Working Papers 6155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Moller Dano, Anne & Ejrnaes, Mette & Husted, Leif, 2005. "Do single women value early retirement more than single men?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 47-71, February.
- Anne Møller Danø & Mette Ejrnæs & Leif Husted, 2004. "Do Single Women Value Early Retirement more than Single Men?," CAM Working Papers 2004-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
- Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2003. "Option Value and Dynamic Programming Model Estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance Application Timing," IZA Discussion Papers 941, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Hajivassiliou, Vassilis & McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul, 1996. "Simulation of multivariate normal rectangle probabilities and their derivatives theoretical and computational results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 85-134.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel L. McFadden & Paul Ruud, 1993. "Simulation of Multivariate Normal Rectangle Probabilities and their Derivatives: Theoretical and Computational Results," Working Papers _024, Yale University.
- Brugiavini, Agar & Padula, Mario, 2001. "Too much for retirement? Saving in Italy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 39-60, March.
- Chan, Sewin & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2004. "Do changes in pension incentives affect retirement? A longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1307-1333, July.
- Colombino, Ugo & Hernæs, Erik & Jia, Zhiyang & Strom, Steinar, 2003. "Retirement in Italy and Norway," Memorandum 10/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:75:y:2013:i:4:p:499-527. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.