Retirement choices in Italy: what an option value model tells us
Using Italian data this study estimates the option value model in order to quantify the effect of financial incentives on retirement choices. As far as we know, this is the first empirical study which estimates the conditional multiple-years (CMY) model put forward by Stock and Wise (1990). This implies that we have accounted for dynamic self-selection bias. For the subsample of females the CMY model yields plausible estimates of the preference parameters such as the marginal utility of leisure. This last parameter is typically underestimated if one does not take into account the self-selection problem. From our results it becomes clear that dynamic self-selection results in a considerable downward-bias in the estimate of the marginal utility of leisure. We also performed a simulation study to gauge the effects of a dramatic pension reform. It turns out that the underestimation of the marginal utility of leisure translates into a sizable overprediction of the impact of the reform. For males we also obtain plausible estimates. The results for males should be interpreted with caution because we are not able to fully correct for dynamic self-selection bias.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 39 011 6705040
Fax: +39 011 6705042
Web page: http://www.cerp.carloalberto.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Euwals, Rob & van Vuuren, Daniel & Wolthoff, Ronald, 2006.
"Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands - Evidence from a Policy Reform,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5596, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rob Euwals & Daniel Vuuren & Ronald Wolthoff, 2010. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence From a Policy Reform," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 209-236, September.
- Euwals, Rob & van Vuuren, Daniel & Wolthoff, Ronald P., 2006. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence from a Policy Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 1992, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Rob Euwals & Daniel van Vuuren & Ronald Wolthoff, 2005. "Early retirement behaviour in the Netherlands; evidence from a policy reform," CPB Discussion Paper 52, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Agar Brugiavini & Vincenzo Galasso, 2003.
"The Social Security Reform Process in Italy: Where do We Stand?,"
wp052, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Brugiavini, Agar & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2004. "The social security reform process in Italy: where do we stand?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 165-195, July.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1992.
"Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity versus Predictive Validity,"
in: Topics in the Economics of Aging, pages 21-60
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1990. "Three Models of Retirement: Computational Complexity Versus Predictive Validity," NBER Working Papers 3558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Arjan Heyma, 2004. "A structural dynamic analysis of retirement behaviour in the Netherlands," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 739-759.
- Anne Møller Danø & Mette Ejrnæs & Leif Husted, 2004.
"Do Single Women Value Early Retirement more than Single Men?,"
CAM Working Papers
2004-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Applied Microeconometrics.
- Moller Dano, Anne & Ejrnaes, Mette & Husted, Leif, 2005. "Do single women value early retirement more than single men?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 47-71, February.
- Colombino, Ugo & Hernæs, Erik & Jia, Zhiyang & Strom, Steinar, 2003. "Retirement in Italy and Norway," Memorandum 10/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel L. McFadden & Paul Ruud, 1993.
"Simulation of Multivariate Normal Rectangle Probabilities and their Derivatives: Theoretical and Computational Results,"
_024, Yale University.
- Hajivassiliou, Vassilis & McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul, 1996. "Simulation of multivariate normal rectangle probabilities and their derivatives theoretical and computational results," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 85-134.
- Belloni, Michele & Alessie, Rob, 2009.
"The importance of financial incentives on retirement choices: New evidence for Italy,"
Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 578-588, October.
- M. Belloni & R. Alessie, 2008. "The Importance of Financial Incentives on Retirement Choices: New Evidence for Italy," Working Papers 08-10, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gumus, Gulcin, 2003. "Option Value and Dynamic Programming Model Estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance Application Timing," IZA Discussion Papers 941, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Angus Deaton & Christina H. Paxson, 1993.
"Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan,"
NBER Working Papers
4330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
- Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006.
"Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 90(12), pages 2187-2212, December.
- Bottazzi, Renata & Jappelli, Tullio & Padula, Mario, 2006. "Retirement expectations, pension reforms, and their impact on private wealth accumulation," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Richard V. Burkhauser & J. S. Butler & Gulcin Gumus, 2004. "Dynamic programming model estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance application timing," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 671-685.
- Agar Brugiavini, 1997.
"Social Security and Retirement in Italy,"
NBER Working Papers
6155, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2003. "Social Security Wealth and Retirement Decisions in Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 17(SpecialIs), pages 79-114, 08.
- Chan, Sewin & Stevens, Ann Huff, 2004. "Do changes in pension incentives affect retirement? A longitudinal study of subjective retirement expectations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1307-1333, July.
- Brugiavini, Agar & Padula, Mario, 2001. "Too much for retirement? Saving in Italy," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 39-60, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:crp:wpaper:92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Silvia Maero)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.