IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/revpoe/v27y2015i3p282-307.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Studying Growth in the Modern Classical Approach: Theoretical and Empirical Implications for the Analysis of Potential Output

Author

Listed:
  • Antonella Palumbo

Abstract

The main characteristics of the modern classical approach to growth are studied with particular reference to the notion of 'potential output'. In contrast to mainstream approaches, which consider potential output to be exogenous and supply-determined, it is here regarded as endogenous and path-dependent. A tentative analysis is carried out of the implications of such a conception in empirical research, with special reference to the effects of the crisis on potential growth. Mainstream estimation methods (especially those used by international institutions) are shown to be deeply influenced by theory, but also to provide dubious and puzzling results. Very different empirical results and policy implications may be obtained from the standpoint of the alternative theoretical framework provided by the modern classical approach. On this basis, the paper proposes that the long-term policy target should be set in terms of the rate of unemployment rather than potential output or potential growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonella Palumbo, 2015. "Studying Growth in the Modern Classical Approach: Theoretical and Empirical Implications for the Analysis of Potential Output," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 282-307, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:27:y:2015:i:3:p:282-307
    DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2015.1067366
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09538259.2015.1067366
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09538259.2015.1067366?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    2. repec:clr:wugarc:y:2016v:42i:03p:451 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller, 2017. "The performativity of potential output: pro-cyclicality and path dependency in coordinating European fiscal policies," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 904-928, September.
    4. Philipp Heimberger, 2017. "Did fiscal consolidation cause the double-dip recession in the euro area?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 439-458, July.
    5. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    6. Emiliano Brancaccio & Fabiana De Cristofaro, 2020. "Inside the IMF Òmea culpaÓ: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(294), pages 225-239.
    7. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 167-174, May.
    8. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    9. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    10. Giovanni Carnazza, 2018. "Il saldo di bilancio corretto per il ciclo economico: un?analisi empirica del caso italiano," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(2-3), pages 27-52.
    11. Philipp Heimberger, 2016. "Das "strukturelle Defizit" in der österreichischen Budgetpolitik: Berechnungsprobleme, Revisionen und wirtschaftspolitische Relevanz," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 42(3), pages 451-463.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michelle Gilmartin & David Learmouth & J Kim Swales & Peter McGregor & Karen Turner, 2013. "Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(4), pages 814-834, April.
    2. Erkki Koskela & Ronnie Schöb, 2002. "Alleviating Unemployment: The Case for Green Tax Reforms," Chapters, in: Lawrence H. Goulder (ed.), Environmental Policy Making in Economies with Prior Tax Distortions, chapter 20, pages 355-378, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
    4. Chéron, Arnaud & Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Langot, François, 2004. "Labor Market Institutions and the Employment-Productivity Trade-Off: A Wage Posting Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 1364, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Sergio Destefanis & Matteo Fragetta & Giuseppe Mastromatteo & Nazzareno Ruggiero, 2020. "The Beveridge curve in the OECD before and after the great recession," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(3), pages 411-436, September.
    6. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Milen Velev, 2015. "A research on the relationship between the unemployment rate and the inflation rate in Bulgaria," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 40-59,60-79.
    8. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    9. Brown, Alessio J.G. & Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis J., 2011. "Comparing the effectiveness of employment subsidies," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 168-179, April.
    10. Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2013. "Efficient bargaining versus right to manage: A stability analysis in a Cournot duopoly with trade unions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 205-211.
    11. Daniel Cardona & Fernando Sánchez-Losada, 2004. "The Unemployment Benefit System: a Redistributive or an Insurance Institution?," DEA Working Papers 8, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament d'Economía Aplicada.
    12. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kee, Hiau Looi & Hoon, Hian Teck, 2005. "Trade, capital accumulation and structural unemployment: an empirical study of the Singapore economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 125-152, June.
    14. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2003. "Unemployment in Britain: A European Success Story," CESifo Working Paper Series 981, CESifo.
    15. Raddatz, Guido, 2015. "Mehr Arbeit wagen," Argumente zur Marktwirtschaft und Politik 129, Stiftung Marktwirtschaft / The Market Economy Foundation, Berlin.
    16. D'Addio, Anna Cristina & De Greef, Isabelle & Rosholm, Michael, 2002. "Assessing Unemployment Traps in Belgium Using Panel Data Sample Selection Models," IZA Discussion Papers 669, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Carlo Altavilla & Floro E. Caroleo, 2006. "Evaluating the Dynamic Effects of Active Labour Policies in Italy," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 20(2), pages 349-382, June.
    18. David M. Gray, 2002. "Early Retirement Programs and Wage Restraint: Empirical Evidence from France," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 55(3), pages 512-532, April.
    19. Galiani, Sebastian & Lamarche, Carlos & Porto, Alberto & Sosa-Escudero, Walter, 2005. "Persistence and regional disparities in unemployment (Argentina 1980-1997)," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 375-394, July.
    20. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Working Papers hal-01027420, HAL.
    21. Ansgar Belke & Rainer Fehn, "undated". "Institutions and Structural Unemployment: Do Capital-Market Imperfections Matter?," German Working Papers in Law and Economics 2001-default/2001/1-1008, Berkeley Electronic Press.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:27:y:2015:i:3:p:282-307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CRPE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.