IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fan/epepep/vhtml10.3280-ep2018-002002.html

Il saldo di bilancio corretto per il ciclo economico: un?analisi empirica del caso italiano

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Carnazza

Abstract

The cyclically adjusted budget balance: An empirical analysis of the Italian case This article presents an estimate of the cyclically-adjusted primary balance in Italy during the new Millennium (1999-2016) in order to assess the fiscal policy stance pursued during the period considered. If it is possible to initially qualify the fiscal policy as counter-cyclical, when the correction is made for the cycle, the budget balance becomes completely acyclical. Therefore, once the budget balance has been adjusted for the automatic influences deriving from the fluctuations of the economic cycle, the discretion of the Government has been explained in the weakening of the original anti-cyclical nature of the fiscal policy. Repeating the analysis in two different sub-periods with the 2008 crisis as a watershed, it emerged that this discretionary reductionist intervention has focused more on the period following the outbreak of the crisis, which highlights how discretionary fiscal policy has failed its expansive contribution in the most difficult moments of the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Carnazza, 2018. "Il saldo di bilancio corretto per il ciclo economico: un?analisi empirica del caso italiano," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(2-3), pages 27-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:fan:epepep:v:html10.3280/ep2018-002002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.francoangeli.it/riviste/Scheda_Rivista.aspx?IDArticolo=62866&Tipo=ArticoloPDF
    Download Restriction: Single articles can be downloaded buying download credits, for info: https://www.francoangeli.it/DownloadCredit
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonella Palumbo, 2015. "Studying Growth in the Modern Classical Approach: Theoretical and Empirical Implications for the Analysis of Potential Output," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 282-307, July.
    2. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    3. Eser, Fabian & Schwaab, Bernd, 2016. "Evaluating the impact of unconventional monetary policy measures: Empirical evidence from the ECB׳s Securities Markets Programme," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 147-167.
    4. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Gilles Mourre & Caterina Astarita & Savina Princen, 2014. "Adjusting the budget balance for the business cycle: the EU methodology," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 536, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Carnot & Francisco de Castro, 2015. "The Discretionary Fiscal Effort: An Assessment of Fiscal Policy and Its Output Effect," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 63-94, December.
    2. Carnazza, Giovanni & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The cyclically-adjusted primary balance: A novel approach for the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1123-1145.
    3. Masten, Igor & Grdović Gnip, Ana, 2016. "Stress testing the EU fiscal framework," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 276-293.
    4. Philipp Heimberger, 2025. "Fiscal consolidation and its growth effects in euro area countries: past, present and future outlook," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 589-617, December.
    5. Gebhardt, Heinz, 2016. "Haushaltskonsolidierung in den meisten Bundesländern weit vorangeschritten," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 67(4), pages 33-48.
    6. repec:ptu:bdpart:e202105 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Deborah Mabbett & Waltraud Schelkle, 2014. "Searching under the lamp-post: the evolution of fiscal surveillance," Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series of the London School of Economics (LEQs) 5, London School of Economics / European Institute.
    8. Gilles Mourre & Aurélien Poissonnier, 2019. "What Drives the Responsiveness of the Budget Balance to the Business Cycle in EU Countries?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 54(4), pages 237-249, July.
    9. repec:clr:wugarc:y:2016v:42i:03p:451 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Rietzler, Katja & Truger, Achim, 2018. "Is the debt brake behind Germany's successful fiscal consolidation?," IPE Working Papers 105/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    12. Deborah Mabbett & Waltraud Schelkle, 2014. "Searching under the lamp-post: the evolution of fiscal surveillance," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 75, European Institute, LSE.
    13. Philipp Heimberger, 2016. "Das "strukturelle Defizit" in der österreichischen Budgetpolitik: Berechnungsprobleme, Revisionen und wirtschaftspolitische Relevanz," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 42(3), pages 451-463.
    14. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Daniel Sotelsek & Guido Zack, 2014. "Some New Results on the Estimation of Structural Budget Balance for Spain," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 210(3), pages 11-31, September.
    15. Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller, 2017. "The performativity of potential output: pro-cyclicality and path dependency in coordinating European fiscal policies," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 904-928, September.
    16. Philipp Heimberger, 2017. "Did fiscal consolidation cause the double-dip recession in the euro area?," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(3), pages 439-458, July.
    17. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    18. Wissem KHANFIR, 2018. "Structural budget balance and fiscal policy stance in Tunisia," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(4(617), W), pages 145-154, Winter.
    19. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 167-174, May.
    20. Paunovic, Igor, 2005. "Public debt sustainability in the northern countries of Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    21. Nizar, Muhammad Afdi, 2010. "Penentuan Efek Dan Arah Kebijakan Fiskal Pemerintah Indonesia: Fiscal Impulse Measure [Fiscal Policy Stance in Indonesia : Fiscal Impluse Measure]," MPRA Paper 65603, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Ryan, Ellen & Whelan, Karl, 2021. "Quantitative easing and the hot potato effect: Evidence from euro area banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fan:epepep:v:html10.3280/ep2018-002002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stefania Rosato (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.francoangeli.it/riviste/sommario.aspx?IDRivista=16 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.