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Decomposition and scenario analysis of CO2 emissions in China’s power industry: based on LMDI method

Author

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  • Yuhuan Zhao

    (Beijing Institute of Technology
    Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing)

  • Hao Li

    (Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Zhonghua Zhang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Yongfeng Zhang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Song Wang

    (Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Ya Liu

    (Beijing Institute of Technology)

Abstract

The power industry is a major contributor to CO2 emissions in China and thus plays a critical role in achieving the targets of CO2 emission reduction. This study analyzes the historical trajectory and feature of CO2 emissions in China’s power industry, explores the driving factors of CO2 emission change using LMDI method, and develops two emission reduction scenarios to evaluate the reduction potential of CO2 emissions. Results show the following: (1) China’s power industry has experienced a significant but unstable increase in CO2 emissions from 343.18 Mt in 1985 to 3447.57 Mt in 2013, a growth rate of 904.60%. (2) Industrial-scale effect plays a dominant role in promoting CO2 emission growth in China’s power industry, and the corresponding contribution degree reaches 111.73%. Energy intensity effect contributes most to the decrease in CO2 emissions, with a contribution degree of −16.82%. Capital productivity effect is another important factor leading to the increase in CO2 emissions. (3) The aggregate CO2 emission reduction in China’s power industry would reach 18,031.62 Mt in the ideal scenario and 15,466.03 Mt in the current policy scenario during 2014–2030. Finally, this study provides policy implications for energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction in China’s power industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuhuan Zhao & Hao Li & Zhonghua Zhang & Yongfeng Zhang & Song Wang & Ya Liu, 2017. "Decomposition and scenario analysis of CO2 emissions in China’s power industry: based on LMDI method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 645-668, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:86:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2710-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2710-5
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    2. Paulo M. De Oliveira-De Jesus & John J. Galvis & Daniela Rojas-Lozano & Jose M. Yusta, 2020. "Multitemporal LMDI Index Decomposition Analysis to Explain the Changes of ACI by the Power Sector in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1990–2017," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-14, May.
    3. Ang, B.W. & Goh, Tian, 2019. "Index decomposition analysis for comparing emission scenarios: Applications and challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 74-87.
    4. Chen, Jiandong & Cheng, Shulei & Song, Malin, 2018. "Changes in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions of the agricultural sector in China from 2005 to 2013," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 748-761.
    5. Liu, Bingquan & Shi, Junxue & Wang, Hui & Su, Xuelin & Zhou, Peng, 2019. "Driving factors of carbon emissions in China: A joint decomposition approach based on meta-frontier," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    6. Yi Liang & Dongxiao Niu & Haichao Wang & Yan Li, 2017. "Factors Affecting Transportation Sector CO 2 Emissions Growth in China: An LMDI Decomposition Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-20, September.
    7. Yunfei An & Dequn Zhou & Qunwei Wang, 2022. "Carbon emission reduction potential and its influencing factors in China’s coal-fired power industry: a cost optimization and decomposition analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3619-3639, March.
    8. Liu, Xianmei & Peng, Rui & Zhong, Chao & Wang, Mingyue & Guo, Pibin, 2021. "What drives the temporal and spatial differences of CO2 emissions in the transport sector? Empirical evidence from municipalities in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
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