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The Driving Forces of Changes in CO 2 Emissions in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis

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  • Bowen Xiao

    () (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Dongxiao Niu

    () (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Xiaodan Guo

    () (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

Understanding the drivers of changes in CO 2 emissions is vital for a range of stakeholders. Hence, this paper explores the main drivers of CO 2 emissions in China using structural decomposition analysis based on constant price and non-comparative input-output tables. The driving forces at both nationwide and industrial levels are divided into nine effects. To investigate the effects from an energy perspective, all nine effects are further decomposed into three kinds of fossil fuels. Our empirical results show that the energy intensity effect can significantly stimulate emission reduction. Though the energy structure effect is weak, the trend of which over time shows that the energy structure is shifting to low carbon. Additionally, among final demand effect, the urban consumption, investment, and export expansion effects predominantly overwhelm other effects and contribute significantly to CO 2 emissions. Although the short term Leontief effects fluctuate greatly, the total Leontief effect in 1997–2010 reveals that it can significantly contribute to CO 2 emissions. Finally, detailed and concrete policy implications for CO 2 emission reduction are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Bowen Xiao & Dongxiao Niu & Xiaodan Guo, 2016. "The Driving Forces of Changes in CO 2 Emissions in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:4:p:259-:d:67071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    driving force; structural decomposition analysis; decomposition effect; CO 2 emissions; input–output table;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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