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The Driving Forces of Changes in CO 2 Emissions in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis

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  • Bowen Xiao

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Dongxiao Niu

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing 102206, China)

  • Xiaodan Guo

    (School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Hui Long Guan, Chang Ping District, Beijing 102206, China)

Abstract

Understanding the drivers of changes in CO 2 emissions is vital for a range of stakeholders. Hence, this paper explores the main drivers of CO 2 emissions in China using structural decomposition analysis based on constant price and non-comparative input-output tables. The driving forces at both nationwide and industrial levels are divided into nine effects. To investigate the effects from an energy perspective, all nine effects are further decomposed into three kinds of fossil fuels. Our empirical results show that the energy intensity effect can significantly stimulate emission reduction. Though the energy structure effect is weak, the trend of which over time shows that the energy structure is shifting to low carbon. Additionally, among final demand effect, the urban consumption, investment, and export expansion effects predominantly overwhelm other effects and contribute significantly to CO 2 emissions. Although the short term Leontief effects fluctuate greatly, the total Leontief effect in 1997–2010 reveals that it can significantly contribute to CO 2 emissions. Finally, detailed and concrete policy implications for CO 2 emission reduction are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Bowen Xiao & Dongxiao Niu & Xiaodan Guo, 2016. "The Driving Forces of Changes in CO 2 Emissions in China: A Structural Decomposition Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:4:p:259-:d:67071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Yong Yang & Junsong Jia & Adam T. Devlin & Yangming Zhou & Dongming Xie & Min Ju, 2020. "Decoupling and Decomposition Analysis of Residential Energy Consumption from Economic Growth during 2000–2017: A Comparative Study of Urban and Rural Guangdong, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-21, August.
    4. Ling Li & Ling Tang & Junrong Zhang, 2019. "Coupling Structural Decomposition Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis to Investigate CO 2 Emission Intensity in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-23, June.
    5. Rodríguez, Miguel, 2022. "Why do many prospective analyses of CO2 emissions fail? An illustrative example from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    6. Lili Sun & Huijuan Cui & Quansheng Ge, 2021. "Driving Factors and Future Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, September.
    7. Wu, Sanmang & Li, Shantong & Lei, Yalin & Li, Li, 2020. "Temporal changes in China's production and consumption-based CO2 emissions and the factors contributing to changes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Yebing Fang & Limao Wang & Zhoupeng Ren & Yan Yang & Chufu Mou & Qiushi Qu, 2017. "Spatial Heterogeneity of Energy-Related CO 2 Emission Growth Rates around the World and Their Determinants during 1990–2014," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, March.

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