IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model

Listed author(s):
  • Xiao-Chen Yuan

    (Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT)
    Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Xun Sun

    (Columbia University)

  • Upmanu Lall

    (Columbia University
    Columbia University)

  • Zhi-Fu Mi

    (Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT)
    Beijing Institute of Technology)

  • Jun He

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yi-Ming Wei

    ()

    (Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT)
    Beijing Institute of Technology)

Abstract China has a large economic and demographic exposure to extreme events that is increasing rapidly due to its fast development, and climate change may further aggravate the situation. This paper investigates China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events under climate change over the next few decades with a focus on sub-national heterogeneity. The empirical relationships between socioeconomic damages and their determinants are identified using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, and are used to estimate future damages as well as associated uncertainty bounds given specified climate and development scenarios. Considering projected changes in exposure, we find that the southwest and central regions and Hainan Island of China are likely to have a larger percentage of population at risk, while most of the southwest and central regions could generally have higher economic losses. Finally, the analysis suggests that increasing income can significantly decrease the number of people affected by extremes.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-016-1749-3
File Function: Abstract
Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Climatic Change.

Volume (Year): 139 (2016)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 169-181

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:139:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1749-3
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1749-3
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springer.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
  2. Mendelsohn, Robert & Emanuel, Kerry & Chonabayashi, Shun, 2011. "The impact of climate change on global tropical storm damages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5562, The World Bank.
  3. Fankhauser, Samuel & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2014. "Understanding the adaptation deficit: why are poor countries more vulnerable to climate events than rich countries?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57620, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Matthew E. Kahn, 2005. "The Death Toll from Natural Disasters: The Role of Income, Geography, and Institutions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 271-284, May.
  5. Jing Liu & Thomas Hertel & Noah Diffenbaugh & Michael Delgado & Moetasim Ashfaq, 2015. "Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 741-749, October.
  6. Rhona Barr & Samuel Fankhauser & Kirk Hamilton, 2010. "Adaptation investments: a resource allocation framework," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(8), pages 843-858, December.
  7. Nigel Arnell & Ben Lloyd-Hughes, 2014. "The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 127-140, January.
  8. S. Seo, 2014. "Estimating Tropical Cyclone Damages Under Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere Using Reported Damages," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 58(3), pages 473-490, July.
  9. Eduardo Cavallo & Andrew Powell & Oscar Becerra, 2010. "Estimating the Direct Economic Damages of the Earthquake in Haiti," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(546), pages 298-312, August.
  10. Eduardo Cavallo & Andrew Powell & Oscar Becerra, 2010. "Estimating the Direct Economic Damages of the Earthquake in Haiti," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(546), pages 298-312, 08.
  11. Wei, Yi-Ming & Mi, Zhi-Fu & Huang, Zhimin, 2015. "Climate policy modeling: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 70-84.
  12. Noy, Ilan, 2009. "The macroeconomic consequences of disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 221-231, March.
  13. Toya, Hideki & Skidmore, Mark, 2007. "Economic development and the impacts of natural disasters," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 20-25, January.
  14. Lazzaroni, Sara & van Bergeijk, Peter A.G., 2014. "Natural disasters' impact, factors of resilience and development: A meta-analysis of the macroeconomic literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 333-346.
  15. Simon Lloyd & R. Kovats & Zaid Chalabi & Sally Brown & Robert Nicholls, 2016. "Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 441-455, February.
  16. Yang Zhou & Ning Li & Wenxiang Wu & Haolong Liu & Li Wang & Guangxu Liu & Jidong Wu, 2014. "Socioeconomic development and the impact of natural disasters: some empirical evidences from China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 541-554, November.
  17. Schumacher, Ingmar & Strobl, Eric, 2011. "Economic development and losses due to natural disasters: The role of hazard exposure," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 97-105.
  18. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(2), pages 135-160, February.
  19. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
  20. Chi-Hsiang Wang & Yong Khoo & Xiaoming Wang, 2015. "Adaptation benefits and costs of raising coastal buildings under storm-tide inundation in South East Queensland, Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 545-558, October.
  21. Detlef Vuuren & Timothy Carter, 2014. "Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 415-429, February.
  22. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
  23. Vinod Thomas & Jose Albert & Cameron Hepburn, 2014. "Contributors to the frequency of intense climate disasters in Asia-Pacific countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 381-398, October.
  24. Kellenberg, Derek K. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2008. "Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 788-802, May.
  25. Simon J. Lloyd & R. Sari Kovats & Zaid Chalabi & Sally Brown & Robert J. Nicholls, 2016. "Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 441-455, February.
  26. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:139:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1749-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Rebekah McClure)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.