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Future Property Damage from Flooding – Sensitivities to Economy and Climate Change

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Jing
  • Hertel, Thomas
  • Delgado, Michael S.
  • Ashfaq, Moetasim
  • Diffenbaugh, Noah

Abstract

Using a unique dataset for Indiana counties during the period 1995-2012, we estimate the effects of flood hazard, asset exposure, and social vulnerability on property damage. This relationship then is combined with the expected level of future flood risks to project property damage from flooding in 2030 under various scenarios. We compare these scenario projections to identify which risk management strategy offers the greatest potential to mitigate flooding loss. Results show that by 2030, county level flooding hazard measured by extreme flow volume and frequency will increase by an average of 16.2% and 7.4%, respectively. The total increase in property damages projected under different model specifications range from 13.3% to 20.8%. Across models future damages consistently exhibit the highest sensitivity to future increases in asset exposure, reinforcing the importance of non-structural measures in managing floodplain development.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas & Delgado, Michael S. & Ashfaq, Moetasim & Diffenbaugh, Noah, 2014. "Future Property Damage from Flooding – Sensitivities to Economy and Climate Change," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169801, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea14:169801
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.169801
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    2. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2016. "China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 169-181, November.
    3. Liu, Bei & Ren, Baoping & Jin, Fei, 2025. "Does climate risk affect the ease of access to credit for farmers? Evidence from CHFS," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    4. Danlu Xu & Zhoubin Liu & Rui Shan & Haixiao Weng & Haoyu Zhang, 2023. "How a Grid Company Could Enter the Hydrogen Industry through a New Business Model: A Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
    5. Cisneros-Pineda Alfredo & Liu Jing & Grogan Danielle & Hertel Thomas, 2024. "Linkages between riverine flooding risk and economic damage over the continental United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(6), pages 5941-5952, April.
    6. Wenhui Liu & Jidong Wu & Rumei Tang & Mengqi Ye & Jing Yang, 2020. "Daily Precipitation Threshold for Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in the Mainland of China: An Economic Loss Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, January.
    7. Jidong Wu & Ying Li & Ning Li & Peijun Shi, 2018. "Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 17-30, January.
    8. Tehmina Fiaz Qazi & Abdul Aziz Khan Niazi & Maryam Aziz & Abdul Basit, 2024. "Assessing the Severity of Consequences of Floods in Pakistan: Applying the ISM Modelling and MICMAC Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 1321-1332.
    9. Bing-Chen Jhong & Jung Huang & Ching-Pin Tung, 2019. "Spatial Assessment of Climate Risk for Investigating Climate Adaptation Strategies by Evaluating Spatial-Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3377-3400, August.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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