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Linkages between riverine flooding risk and economic damage over the continental United States

Author

Listed:
  • Cisneros-Pineda Alfredo

    (Purdue University in West Lafayette)

  • Liu Jing

    (Purdue University in West Lafayette)

  • Grogan Danielle

    (University of New Hampshire in Durham)

  • Hertel Thomas

    (Purdue University in West Lafayette)

Abstract

Economic damages from riverine flooding are expected to grow because of climate change. Yet, there are few studies analyzing flooding damages in the USA that clearly measure the roles of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability separately and locally. A lack of this knowledge prohibits spatially detailed predictions of future damages. By being able to separate into these three risk factors, we provide all necessary inputs for uncertainty analysis of the flooding damages forecasts that can incorporate new predictive scenarios for each component. To analyze the flooding risk factors of non-coastal counties within the contiguous USA between 1999 and 2018, we gathered information on (1) property and human damages from flooding, (2) maximum annual river discharge, (3) the number of housing units and the years in which they were built, and (4) the incidence of flooding events. We used the method of trimmed least absolute deviated and trimmed least square estimators to obtain the individual impact of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in the context of censored flooding damages for panel data. The resulting estimates indicate that exposure has been the main driver of flooding risk for most counties in the USA. We use these estimates to describe the main source of flooding risk for non-coastal counties for the 1999–2018 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Cisneros-Pineda Alfredo & Liu Jing & Grogan Danielle & Hertel Thomas, 2024. "Linkages between riverine flooding risk and economic damage over the continental United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(6), pages 5941-5952, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:6:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06445-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06445-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric Tate & Md Asif Rahman & Christopher T. Emrich & Christopher C. Sampson, 2021. "Flood exposure and social vulnerability in the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 435-457, March.
    2. Oliver E. J. Wing & William Lehman & Paul D. Bates & Christopher C. Sampson & Niall Quinn & Andrew M. Smith & Jeffrey C. Neal & Jeremy R. Porter & Carolyn Kousky, 2022. "Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 156-162, February.
    3. Eoin O'Neill & Finbarr Brereton & Harutyun Shahumyan & J. Peter Clinch, 2016. "The Impact of Perceived Flood Exposure on Flood‐Risk Perception: The Role of Distance," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(11), pages 2158-2186, November.
    4. Jing Liu & Thomas Hertel & Noah Diffenbaugh & Michael Delgado & Moetasim Ashfaq, 2015. "Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 741-749, October.
    5. Yi Qiang & Nina S. N. Lam & Heng Cai & Lei Zou, 2017. "Changes in Exposure to Flood Hazards in the United States," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(6), pages 1332-1350, November.
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