IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v121y2025i1d10.1007_s11069-024-06817-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Quantifying urban flood extent using satellite imagery and machine learning

Author

Listed:
  • Rebecca W. Composto

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Mirela G. Tulbure

    (North Carolina State University
    North Carolina State University)

  • Varun Tiwari

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Mollie D. Gaines

    (North Carolina State University)

  • Júlio Caineta

    (North Carolina State University)

Abstract

The risk of floods from tropical storms is increasing due to climate change and human development. Maps of past flood extents can aid in planning and mitigation efforts to decrease flood risk. In 2021, Hurricane Ida slowed over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States and released unprecedented rainfall. Satellite imagery and the Random Forest algorithm are a reliable combination to map flood extents. However, this combination is not usually applied to urban areas. We used Sentinel-2 imagery (10 m), along with derived indices, elevation, and land cover data, as inputs to a Random Forest model to make a new flood extent for southeastern Pennsylvania. The model was trained and validated with a dataset created with input from PlanetScope imagery (3 m) and social media posts related to the flood event. The overall accuracy of the model is 99%, and the flood class had a user’s and producer’s accuracy each over 97%. We then compared the flood extent to the Federal Emergency Management Agency flood zones at the county and tract level and found that more flooding occurred in the Minimal Hazard zone than in the 500-year flood zone. Our Random Forest model relies on publicly available data and software to efficiently and accurately make a flood extent map that can be deployed to other urban areas. Flood extent maps like the one developed here can help decision-makers focus efforts on recovery and resilience. Graphical abstract

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca W. Composto & Mirela G. Tulbure & Varun Tiwari & Mollie D. Gaines & Júlio Caineta, 2025. "Quantifying urban flood extent using satellite imagery and machine learning," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(1), pages 175-199, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06817-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06817-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-024-06817-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-024-06817-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Tate & Md Asif Rahman & Christopher T. Emrich & Christopher C. Sampson, 2021. "Flood exposure and social vulnerability in the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 435-457, March.
    2. J. F. Rosser & D. G. Leibovici & M. J. Jackson, 2017. "Rapid flood inundation mapping using social media, remote sensing and topographic data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 103-120, May.
    3. Oliver E. J. Wing & William Lehman & Paul D. Bates & Christopher C. Sampson & Niall Quinn & Andrew M. Smith & Jeffrey C. Neal & Jeremy R. Porter & Carolyn Kousky, 2022. "Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(2), pages 156-162, February.
    4. Sven Anders Brandt & Nancy Joy Lim & Johan Colding & Stephan Barthel, 2021. "Mapping Flood Risk Uncertainty Zones in Support of Urban Resilience Planning," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(3), pages 258-271.
    5. James P. Kossin, 2018. "Author Correction: A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed," Nature, Nature, vol. 564(7735), pages 11-16, December.
    6. Jean-François Pekel & Andrew Cottam & Noel Gorelick & Alan S. Belward, 2016. "High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes," Nature, Nature, vol. 540(7633), pages 418-422, December.
    7. Billings, Stephen B. & Gallagher, Emily A. & Ricketts, Lowell, 2022. "Let the rich be flooded: The distribution of financial aid and distress after hurricane harvey," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 797-819.
    8. Maryia Markhvida & Brian Walsh & Stephane Hallegatte & Jack Baker, 2020. "Quantification of disaster impacts through household well-being losses," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(7), pages 538-547, July.
    9. Winsemius, Hessel C. & Jongman, Brenden & Veldkamp, Ted I.E. & Hallegatte, Stephane & Bangalore, Mook & Ward, Philip J., 2018. "Disaster risk, climate change, and poverty: assessing the global exposure of poor people to floods and droughts," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 328-348, June.
    10. Sven Anders Brandt & Nancy Joy Lim & Johan Colding & Stephan Barthel, 2021. "Mapping Flood Risk Uncertainty Zones in Support of Urban Resilience Planning," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(3), pages 258-271.
    11. James P. Kossin, 2018. "A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed," Nature, Nature, vol. 558(7708), pages 104-107, June.
    12. Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Michael Oppenheimer & Erik Vanmarcke, 2012. "Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 462-467, June.
    13. Jun Rentschler & Melda Salhab & Bramka Arga Jafino, 2022. "Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qian Ke & Jiangshan Yin & Jeremy D. Bricker & Nicholas Savage & Erasmo Buonomo & Qinghua Ye & Paul Visser & Guangtao Dong & Shuai Wang & Zhan Tian & Laixiang Sun & Ralf Toumi & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, 2021. "An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 671-703, October.
    2. Chin‐Hsien Yu & Bruce A. McCarl & Jian‐Da Zhu, 2022. "Market response to typhoons: The role of information and expectations," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 89(2), pages 496-521, October.
    3. Thomas Thaler & Patrick A. Witte & Thomas Hartmann & Stan C. M. Geertman, 2021. "Smart Urban Governance for Climate Change Adaptation," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(3), pages 223-226.
    4. Verschuur,Jasper & Becher,Olivia Rose Elizabeth & Schwantje,Tom & Mathijs Van Ledden & Kazi,Swarna & Urrutia Duarte,Ignacio M., 2023. "Welfare and Climate Risks in Coastal Bangladesh : The Impacts of Climatic Extremes onMultidimensional Poverty and the Wider Benefits of Climate Adaptation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10373, The World Bank.
    5. John Miller & Guilherme Vieira Silva & Darrell Strauss, 2023. "Divergence of tropical cyclone hazard based on wind-weighted track distributions in the Coral Sea, over 50 years," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2591-2617, March.
    6. Justin S. Rogers & Marco P. Maneta & Stephan R. Sain & Luke E. Madaus & Joshua P. Hacker, 2025. "The role of climate and population change in global flood exposure and vulnerability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Shivendra Srivastava & Tyler Gerdes & Tirthankar Roy, 2025. "County-scale flood risk assessment of properties and associated population in the United States," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(3), pages 2641-2664, February.
    8. Mallucci, Enrico, 2022. "Natural disasters, climate change, and sovereign risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    9. Zhao, Rui & Zhang, Dayong & Guo, Mengmeng, 2024. "Do natural disasters affect stock price crash risk? Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Ben Clarke & Friederike Otto & Richard Jones, 2023. "When don’t we need a new extreme event attribution study?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(5), pages 1-19, May.
    11. Nicola Garbarino & Sascha Möhrle & Florian Neumeier & Marie-Theres von Schickfus, 2024. "Disaster Aid and Support for Mandatory Insurance: Evidence from a Survey Experiment," ifo Working Paper Series 406, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    12. Anil Deo & Savin S. Chand & R. Duncan McIntosh & Bipen Prakash & Neil J. Holbrook & Andrew Magee & Alick Haruhiru & Philip Malsale, 2022. "Severe tropical cyclones over southwest Pacific Islands: economic impacts and implications for disaster risk management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-23, June.
    13. Walls, Margaret A. & Ferreira, Celso & Liao, Yanjun (Penny) & Pesek, Sophie, 2023. "Jobs at Risk: Sea Level Rise, Coastal Flooding, and Local Economies," RFF Working Paper Series 23-12, Resources for the Future.
    14. Yi Zou & Zhenfeng Wei & Qingming Zhan & Huijie Zhou, 2023. "An extreme storm over the Nanling Mountains during Typhoon Bilis and the roles of terrain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 795-815, March.
    15. Jacob Kim-Sherman & Lee Seltzer, 2024. "Clustering in Natural Disaster Damages," Staff Reports 1135, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    16. A. Sebastian & D. J. Bader & C. M. Nederhoff & T. W. B. Leijnse & J. D. Bricker & S. G. J. Aarninkhof, 2021. "Hindcast of pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flood damage in Houston, Texas during Hurricane Harvey (2017) using SFINCS," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2343-2362, December.
    17. George C. Galster & Joshua Galster & Karl Vachuska, 2024. "The color of water: Racial and income differences in exposure to floods across US neighborhoods," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(3), pages 753-793, May.
    18. Xiangbo Feng & Nicholas P. Klingaman & Kevin I. Hodges, 2021. "Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    19. Samoray, Christopher & Hino, Miyuki & Siders, A.R. & Agopian, Armen & Mach, Katharine J., 2024. "Housing amenity and affordability shape floodplain development," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    20. Billings, Stephen B. & Gallagher, Emily A. & Ricketts, Lowell, 2022. "Let the rich be flooded: The distribution of financial aid and distress after hurricane harvey," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 797-819.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:121:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06817-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.