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Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change

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Listed:
  • Jing Liu
  • Thomas Hertel
  • Noah Diffenbaugh
  • Michael Delgado
  • Moetasim Ashfaq

Abstract

Recent trends in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have raised the concern that climate change could increase flooding risks and property damage. However, a major challenge in attributing and projecting changes in disaster risk is that damage is influenced not only by the physical climate hazard, but also by non-climatic factors that shape exposure and vulnerability. Recent assessments of integrated disaster risk have been hampered by the paucity of literature analyzing local-scale interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability in the historical record. Here we develop an integrated empirical analysis of historical flood damage that emphasizes spatial and temporal heterogeneity in flood hazard, economic exposure and social vulnerability. Using the Midwestern United States as a testbed, we show that annual property damage from flooding is projected to increase by 13 to 17.4 % over the next two decades. At the state level, over half of the increase is driven by projected growth in housing units. However, at the county level, the dominant factor causing future damage varies, emphasizing the value of a fully integrated, spatially and temporally resolved approach to assessing flooding risk and control strategies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Jing Liu & Thomas Hertel & Noah Diffenbaugh & Michael Delgado & Moetasim Ashfaq, 2015. "Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 741-749, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:132:y:2015:i:4:p:741-749
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1478-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Iman Mallakpour & Gabriele Villarini, 2015. "The changing nature of flooding across the central United States," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(3), pages 250-254, March.
    2. Robert Mendelsohn & Kerry Emanuel & Shun Chonabayashi & Laura Bakkensen, 2012. "The impact of climate change on global tropical cyclone damage," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(3), pages 205-209, March.
    3. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    4. Christian Huggel & Dáithí Stone & Maximilian Auffhammer & Gerrit Hansen, 2013. "Loss and damage attribution," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 694-696, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2016. "China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 169-181, November.
    2. Danlu Xu & Zhoubin Liu & Rui Shan & Haixiao Weng & Haoyu Zhang, 2023. "How a Grid Company Could Enter the Hydrogen Industry through a New Business Model: A Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Jidong Wu & Ying Li & Ning Li & Peijun Shi, 2018. "Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 17-30, January.
    4. Bing-Chen Jhong & Jung Huang & Ching-Pin Tung, 2019. "Spatial Assessment of Climate Risk for Investigating Climate Adaptation Strategies by Evaluating Spatial-Temporal Variability of Extreme Precipitation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(10), pages 3377-3400, August.
    5. Wenhui Liu & Jidong Wu & Rumei Tang & Mengqi Ye & Jing Yang, 2020. "Daily Precipitation Threshold for Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in the Mainland of China: An Economic Loss Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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