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Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old

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  • Detlef Vuuren

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  • Timothy Carter

Abstract

A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs. Next, it compares projected atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and climate characteristics for SRES and RCPs. Finally, it uses the new scenarios matrix architecture to match SRES scenarios to combinations of RCPs and SSPs, resulting in four suggestions of suitable combinations, mapping: (i) an A2 world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP3, (ii) a B2 (or A1B) world onto RCP 6.0 and SSP2, (iii) a B1 world onto RCP 4.5 and SSP1, and (iv) an A1FI world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP5. A few other variants are also explored. These mappings, though approximate, may assist analysts in reconciling earlier scenarios with the new scenario framework. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Detlef Vuuren & Timothy Carter, 2014. "Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 415-429, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:3:p:415-429
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0974-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alison Rothwell & Brad Ridoutt & William Bellotti, 2016. "Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios," Land, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Xun Sun & Upmanu Lall & Zhi-Fu Mi & Jun He & Yi-Ming Wei, 2016. "China’s socioeconomic risk from extreme events in a changing climate: a hierarchical Bayesian model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 169-181, November.
    3. Spalding-Fecher, Randall. & Senatla, Mamahloko & Yamba, Francis & Lukwesa, Biness & Himunzowa, Grayson & Heaps, Charles & Chapman, Arthur & Mahumane, Gilberto & Tembo, Bernard & Nyambe, Imasiku, 2017. "Electricity supply and demand scenarios for the Southern African power pool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 403-414.
    4. Wolf, Joost & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Kros, Johannes & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Britz, Wolfgang & Reinds, Gert Jan & Ewert, Frank & de Vries, Wim, 2015. "Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 56-73.
    5. P. Harrison & R. Dunford & C. Savin & M. Rounsevell & I. Holman & A. Kebede & B. Stuch, 2015. "Cross-sectoral impacts of climate change and socio-economic change for multiple, European land- and water-based sectors," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 279-292, February.
    6. repec:spr:climat:v:149:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2227-x is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:agisys:v:157:y:2017:i:c:p:81-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:spr:nathaz:v:92:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3297-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:wsi:wepxxx:v:04:y:2018:i:01:n:s2382624x1650034x is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Lorenzo Alfieri & Luc Feyen & Giuliano Di Baldassarre, 2016. "Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 507-521, June.
    11. Nir Y. Krakauer, 2014. "Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(3), pages 1-14, March.
    12. repec:eee:jfpoli:v:79:y:2018:i:c:p:58-66 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:eee:energy:v:140:y:2017:i:p1:p:1276-1291 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:spr:climat:v:151:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2318-8 is not listed on IDEAS

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