IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v325y2025ics0360544225016718.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the energy implications of human thermal adaptation to hot temperatures in present and future scenarios: a parametric simulation study

Author

Listed:
  • Sánchez-García, Daniel
  • Bienvenido-Huertas, David
  • Kim, Jungsoo
  • Pisello, Anna Laura

Abstract

Understanding how humans adapt to indoor thermal conditions is crucial for designing spaces that promote well-being while achieving energy efficiency goals. Adaptive setpoint temperatures assume occupants adapt to mechanically conditioned spaces as if they were naturally ventilated. However, a broader perspective beyond specific models and climates is needed. This paper explores the energy implications of adaptive comfort models, analyzing key parameters: gradient, y-intercept, offset from neutrality, and applicability upper limit. The Adaptive-Comfort-Control-Implemented Model (ACCIM) tool and BESOS parametric simulation framework were employed to simulate thousands of variations. Future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) for 2050 and 2080 were considered. Results highlight that the comfort zone threshold (named ASToffset) has the highest impact on cooling demand, with reductions up to 59 %. Then, 1300 parameter combinations were summarized into 10 adaptation profiles, revealing cooling demand reductions of 1 %–17 % per adaptation level. Adaptation profiles indicate significant energy savings by increasing operative temperatures in hot climates. This study reconciles adaptive comfort and energy efficiency, providing insights into the influence of adaptive comfort equations and the energy implications of varying adaptation levels in current and future climates. Findings support the design of energy-efficient spaces, addressing climate change challenges and improving sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Sánchez-García, Daniel & Bienvenido-Huertas, David & Kim, Jungsoo & Pisello, Anna Laura, 2025. "Exploring the energy implications of human thermal adaptation to hot temperatures in present and future scenarios: a parametric simulation study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:325:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225016718
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225016718
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.136029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Sánchez-García & David Bienvenido-Huertas & Mónica Tristancho-Carvajal & Carlos Rubio-Bellido, 2019. "Adaptive Comfort Control Implemented Model (ACCIM) for Energy Consumption Predictions in Dwellings under Current and Future Climate Conditions: A Case Study Located in Spain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-22, April.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    3. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    4. Pino-Mejías, Rafael & Pérez-Fargallo, Alexis & Rubio-Bellido, Carlos & Pulido-Arcas, Jesús A., 2018. "Artificial neural networks and linear regression prediction models for social housing allocation: Fuel Poverty Potential Risk Index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 627-641.
    5. Pérez-Fargallo, Alexis & Rubio-Bellido, Carlos & Pulido-Arcas, Jesús A. & Javier Guevara-García, Fco., 2018. "Fuel Poverty Potential Risk Index in the context of climate change in Chile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 157-170.
    6. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    7. Kramer, R.P. & Maas, M.P.E. & Martens, M.H.J. & van Schijndel, A.W.M. & Schellen, H.L., 2015. "Energy conservation in museums using different setpoint strategies: A case study for a state-of-the-art museum using building simulations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 446-458.
    8. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    2. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.
    3. Richard Taylor & Ruth Butterfield & Tiago Capela Lourenço & Adis Dzebo & Henrik Carlsen & Richard J. T. Klein, 2020. "Surveying perceptions and practices of high-end climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 65-87, July.
    4. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Coppens, Léo & Venmans, Frank, 2025. "The welfare properties of climate targets," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    6. Enrica De Cian & Ian Sue Wing, 2016. "Global Energy Demand in a Warming Climate," Working Papers 2016.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Tom Wilson & Irina Grossman & Monica Alexander & Phil Rees & Jeromey Temple, 2022. "Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 865-898, June.
    8. Victor Nechifor & Matthew Winning, 2017. "The impacts of higher CO2 concentrations over global crop production and irrigation water requirements," EcoMod2017 10487, EcoMod.
    9. Dugan, Anna & Mayer, Jakob & Thaller, Annina & Bachner, Gabriel & Steininger, Karl W., 2022. "Developing policy packages for low-carbon passenger transport: A mixed methods analysis of trade-offs and synergies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    11. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Giuseppe Pulighe & Flavio Lupia & Valentina Manente, 2025. "Climate-Driven Invasion Risks of Japanese Beetle ( Popillia japonica Newman) in Europe Predicted Through Species Distribution Modelling," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, March.
    13. Zheng, Zhoumin & Xu, Nuo & Khan, Mohsin & Pedersen, Michael & Abdalgader, Tarteel & Zhang, Lai, 2024. "Nonlinear impacts of climate change on dengue transmission in mainland China: Underlying mechanisms and future projection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 492(C).
    14. Hongliang Zhang & Jianhong E. Mu & Bruce A. McCarl & Jialing Yu, 2022. "The impact of climate change on global energy use," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, January.
    15. Francesco Lamperti & Valentina Bosetti & Andrea Roventini & Massimo Tavoni, 2019. "The public costs of climate-induced financial instability," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(11), pages 829-833, November.
    16. Julien CALAS & Antoine GODIN & Julie MAURIN (AFD) & and Etienne ESPAGNE (World Bank), 2022. "Global biodiversity scenarios: what do they tell us for biodiversity-related socioeconomic impacts?," Working Paper 1a39419b-ef1d-4b82-a7be-d, Agence française de développement.
    17. Juliette N. Rooney-Varga & Florian Kapmeier & John D. Sterman & Andrew P. Jones & Michele Putko & Kenneth Rath, 2020. "The Climate Action Simulation," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 51(2), pages 114-140, April.
    18. Moyer, Jonathan D. & Hedden, Steve, 2020. "Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Johannes Gallé & Anja Katzenberger, 2025. "Indian Agriculture Under Climate Change: The Competing Effect of Temperature and Rainfall Anomalies," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 53-105, March.
    20. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:325:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225016718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.