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Rola usług rynkowych w procesach rozwojowych gospodarki Polski

Author

Listed:
  • Jakub Growiec
  • Michał Gradzewicz
  • Jan Hagemejer
  • Zofia Jankiewicz
  • Piotr Popowski
  • Katarzyna Puchalska
  • Paweł Strzelecki
  • Joanna Tyrowicz

Abstract

Celem artykułu jest weryfikacja hipotezy, że usługi rynkowe odgrywały, obok przemysłu, kluczową rolę w procesach rozwojowych gospodarki Polski w latach 1995-2012. Cel ten zrealizowano poprzez uszczegółowioną, wielowątkową analizę empiryczną, pozwalającą odpowiedzieć na pytania badawcze związane z rolą obserwowanej w Polsce zmiany strukturalnej oraz zmian cen względnych w objaśnianiu dynamiki wzrostu gospodarczego, a także zachowaniem przemysłu i usług w cyklu koniunkturalnym oraz zróżnicowaniem wewnętrznym usług rynkowych. Wyniki analiz makroekonomicznych oparto na danych z rachunków narodowych z lat 1995–2012. Ponadto opierając się na danych jednostkowych na poziomie firm z lat 2005–2012, przeanalizowano różnice pomiędzy poszczególnymi branżami usługowymi pod względem poziomu oraz dynamiki produktywności pracy i zatrudnienia. Uzyskane wyniki są następujące. W latach 1995–2012 obserwowano w Polsce systematyczny wzrost udziału usług rynkowych w zatrudnieniu. Równocześnie jednak produktywność pracy oraz całkowita produktywność czynników (TFP) rosły wolniej w tym sektorze w porównaniu z sektorem przemysłowym, w związku z relatywnie szybszym postępem technologicznym w przemyśle. Systematycznie spadała też cena względna dóbr przemysłowych w porównaniu z usługami. Zmienność zatrudnienia i wartości dodanej w cyklu koniunkturalnym była natomiast wyraźnie mniejsza w usługach rynkowych. Na tle wysokiej heterogeniczności firm w ramach poszczególnych branż, nie stwierdzono istotnie różnej dynamiki rozwojowej usług eksportointensywnych, relatywnie kapitałochłonnych, skierowanych do biznesu (B2B), ani usług opartych na wiedzy. Z uzyskanych wyników wyprowadzono prognozę, że gospodarka polska będzie w przyszłości wskutek zwiększającej się roli usług rynkowych rosnąć nieco wolniej, ale stabilniej niż dotychczas.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Growiec & Michał Gradzewicz & Jan Hagemejer & Zofia Jankiewicz & Piotr Popowski & Katarzyna Puchalska & Paweł Strzelecki & Joanna Tyrowicz, 2015. "Rola usług rynkowych w procesach rozwojowych gospodarki Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 163-193.
  • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2015:i:2:p:163-193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kuźnar, Andżelika, 2016. "Poland’s Trade in Services with Germany – EU Membership Experience," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 16(31), pages 1-15, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    usługi rynkowe; struktura sektorowa gospodarki; produktywność pracy; rozwój gospodarczy; cykl koniunkturalny;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General
    • L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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