IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rnp/ecopol/ep1457.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposition of the russian GDP growth rate in 1999-2014

Author

Listed:
  • Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei

    () (Russian Foreign Trade Academy)

  • Drobyshevskiy, Sergei

    () (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Kazakova, Maria

    () (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

The paper proposes a method of decomposition of the growth of Russia's GDP in the structural, foreign trade and the market component. The method is based on the algorithm of decomposition of macroeconomic indicators of developed countries, the revised specific to the Russian economy, which is characterized by a high dependence on foreign trade conditions (the dynamics of world oil prices). As a result of the calculations the authors identify several phases of economic growth in Russia in the period from 1999 to 2014: recovery growth (1999-2000); growth through increased investment and capital utilization (2001-2003), and also due to favorable terms of trade (2004-2008); overheating and economic crisis (2008-2009) and the subsequent new, lower phase of the business cycle (2010-2014).

Suggested Citation

  • Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei & Drobyshevskiy, Sergei & Kazakova, Maria, 2014. "Decomposition of the russian GDP growth rate in 1999-2014," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, pages 7-37, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://w82.ranepa.ru/rnp/ecopol/ep1457.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. Idrisov & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev., 2013. "Budget Policy and Economic Growth," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 8.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters,in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Assaf Razin, 2004. "Aggregate Supply and Potential Output," NBER Working Papers 10294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    8. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    9. A. Radygin & R. Entov., 2005. "Institutional Components of Economic Growth," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 11.
    10. V. Mau., 2012. "Human Capital: Challenges for Russia," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 7.
    11. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "The Great Contractions in Russia, the Baltics and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union; A View From the Supply Side," IMF Working Papers 00/32, International Monetary Fund.
    12. S. Drobyshevsky & P. Kadochnikov & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev., 2007. "Some Issues of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Russia in 2000—2006 and in the Short-term Outlook," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 2.
    13. V. Mau., 2012. "Economy and Policy in 2011: Global Crisis and Search for a New Model of Growth," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 2.
    14. B. Zamaraev & A. Kiyutsevskaya & A. Nazarova & E. Sukhanov., 2013. "The Slowdown of the Russian Economy," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 8.
    15. V. Mau., 2011. "Economic Policy in 2010: In Search of Innovations," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 2.
    16. Odile Chagny & Jörg Döpke, 2001. "Measures of the Output Gap in the Euro-Zone: An Empirical Assessment of Selected Methods," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 70(3), pages 310-332.
    17. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Kalman Filter and its Economic Applications," MPRA Paper 22734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    19. A. Radygin & R. Entov., 2008. "In Search of Institutional Characteristics of Economic Growth," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 8.
    20. S. Drobyshevsky & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev & I. Sokolov., 2011. "Transformation of Budgetary Policy in Russia during the 2000s: in Quest of National Fiscal Sustainability," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
    21. V. Mau., 2010. "Economic Policy in 2009: Between the Crisis and Modernization," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 2.
    22. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678-678.
    23. Дробышевский Сергей Михайлович & Синельников Сергей Германович & Трунин Павел Вячеславович, 2011. "Решения G20 О Скоординированной Антикризисной Экономической Политике И Российский Опыт," Российский внешнеэкономический вестник, CyberLeninka;Государственное образовательное учреждение Высшего профессионального образования Всероссийская академия внешней торговли Минэкономразвития России, vol. 2011(5), pages 3-9.
    24. Бессонов В. А., 2004. "О Динамике Совокупной Факторной Производительности В Российской Переходной Экономике," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 8(4), pages 542-587.
    25. V. Mau., 2013. "Between Modernization and Stagnation: Economic Policy in 2012," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 2.
    26. Казакова Мария Владимировна, 2009. "Вклад Нефтегазового Сектора В Динамику Экономических Показателей В России И В Мировой Практике," Российский внешнеэкономический вестник, CyberLeninka;Государственное образовательное учреждение Высшего профессионального образования Всероссийская академия внешней торговли Минэкономразвития России, issue 8, pages 66-72.
    27. S. Drobyshevsky & S. Sinelnikov-Murylev., 2012. "Macroeconomic Preconditions of Realization of a New Growth Model," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 9.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:rujoec:v:3:y:2017:i:3:p:240-262 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:rujoec:v:2:y:2016:i:1:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Buklemishev, O., 2016. "Overcoming Investment Pause in the Russian Economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 160-167.
    4. repec:eee:rujoec:v:1:y:2015:i:1:p:4-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:arh:jrujec:v:4:y:2018:i:2:p:87-107 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RANEPA maintainer). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aneeeru.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.