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Decomposition of the russian GDP growth rate in 1999-2014
[Декомпозиция Темпов Роста Ввп России В 1999—2014 Годах]

Author

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  • Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей)

    (Russian Foreign Trade Academy)

  • Drobyshevskiy, Sergei (Дробышевский, Сергей)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Kazakova, Maria (Казакова, Мария)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

The paper proposes a method of decomposition of the growth of Russia's GDP in the structural, foreign trade and the market component. The method is based on the algorithm of decomposition of macroeconomic indicators of developed countries, the revised specific to the Russian economy, which is characterized by a high dependence on foreign trade conditions (the dynamics of world oil prices). As a result of the calculations the authors identify several phases of economic growth in Russia in the period from 1999 to 2014: recovery growth (1999-2000); growth through increased investment and capital utilization (2001-2003), and also due to favorable terms of trade (2004-2008); overheating and economic crisis (2008-2009) and the subsequent new, lower phase of the business cycle (2010-2014).

Suggested Citation

  • Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей) & Drobyshevskiy, Sergei (Дробышевский, Сергей) & Kazakova, Maria (Казакова, Мария), 2014. "Decomposition of the russian GDP growth rate in 1999-2014 [Декомпозиция Темпов Роста Ввп России В 1999—2014 Годах]," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 7-37, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1457
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. V. Mau., 2016. "Anti-crisis measures or structural reforms: Russia’s economic policy in 2015," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 2.
    3. Oreshkin, Maxim (Орешкин, Максим), 2018. "Prospects of Economic Policy [Перспективы Экономической Политики]," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 8-27, June.
    4. Buklemishev, O., 2016. "Overcoming Investment Pause in the Russian Economy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 160-167.
    5. Vladimir Mau, 2018. "Russian economic policy: Challenges of growth," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 4(2), pages 87-107, June.
    6. Salnikov, Vladimir & Galimov, Dmitry & Mikheeva, Olga & Gnidchenko, Andrey & Rybalka, Alexey, 2017. "Russian manufacturing production capacity: Primary trends and structural characteristics," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 240-262.
    7. Zemtsov, S. & Smelov, Y., 2018. "Factors of Regional Development in Russia: Geography, Human Capital and Regional Policies," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 40(4), pages 84-108.
    8. Mau, Vladimir & Ulyukaev, Alexey, 2015. "Global crisis and challenges for Russian economic development," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 4-29.
    9. Mau, Vladimir & Ulyukaev, Sergey, 2015. "Global Crisis and the Economic Policy Challenges of Modern Russia," Published Papers dok23, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    10. Sergey Drobyshevsky & Georgy Idrisov & Andrey Kaukin & Pavel Pavlov & Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev, 2018. "Decomposition of growth rates for the Russian economy," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 4(4), pages 305-327, December.
    11. Vashchelyuk, N.V. (Ващелюк, Н.В.) & Polbin, Andrey (Полбин, Андрей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "The Econometric Estimation of the Macroeconomic Effects of the Shock of Monetary Policy for the Russian Economy [Эконометрическая Оценка Макроэкономических Эффектов Шока Денежно-Кредитной Политики ," Working Papers 2133, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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