IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2017i2p109-123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Stationarity of Consumption-Income Ratios: Nonlinear Evidence in ASEAN Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Sakiru Adebola SOLARIN

    (Multimedia University Malaysia, Melaka, Malaysia.)

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate the nonstationarity of consumption–income ratios in the ASEAN countries. After establishing that the series follows a nonlinear process, we employ different types of nonstationarity tests including the Wu and Lee (2009) approach in the estimation process. The results show that consumption–income ratio is non-stationary in most of the countries, as suggested by the absolute income hypothesis and the involuntary saving theory. The findings are important because they suggest that government interventions through the fiscal and monetary policies are likely to have enduring impact on the consumption–income ratio in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakiru Adebola SOLARIN, 2017. "The Stationarity of Consumption-Income Ratios: Nonlinear Evidence in ASEAN Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 109-123, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:2:p:109-123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_17/rjef2_2017p109-123.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mario Cerrato & Christian De Peretti & Nick Sarantis, 2007. "A nonlinear panel unit root test under cross section dependence," Documents de recherche 07-12, Centre d'Études des Politiques Économiques (EPEE), Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne.
    2. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    3. Elmi, Zahra (Mila) & Ranjbar, Omid, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment to the mean reversion of consumption–income ratio," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 477-480.
    4. Dong Wan Shin & Beong Soo So, 2001. "recursive Mean Adjustment for Unit Root Tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 595-612, September.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    8. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    9. Sollis, Robert, 2009. "A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 118-125, January.
    10. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
    11. repec:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:3:p:482-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    13. Gemma Estrada & Donghyun Park & Arief Ramayandi, 2012. "Population aging and aggregate consumption in developing Asia," Chapters, in: Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 4, pages 111-129, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Mario Cerrato & Christian De Peretti & Chris Stewart, 2013. "Is The Consumption–Income Ratio Stationary? Evidence From Linear And Non-Linear Panel Unit Root Tests For Oecd And Non-Oecd Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(1), pages 102-120, January.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    16. Robinson Kruse, 2011. "A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 71-85, February.
    17. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    18. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2009. "A revisit to the non-linear mean reversion of real exchange rates: Evidence from a series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 591-601, December.
    19. Steven Cook, 2003. "The nonstationarity of the consumption-income ratio: Evidence from more powerful Dickey-Fuller tests," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 393-395.
    20. World Bank, 2016. "World Development Indicators 2016," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 23969.
    21. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    22. Drobny, A & Hall, S G, 1989. "An Investigation of the Long-run Properties of Aggregate Non-durable Consumers' Expenditure in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 454-460, June.
    23. Diego Romero-Avila, 2008. "A confirmatory analysis of the unit root hypothesis for OECD consumption-income ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2271-2278.
    24. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Shu-Yi Liao & Mao-Lung Huang & Lan-Hsun Wang, 2011. "Mean-reverting behavior of consumption-income ratio in OECD countries: evidence from SURADF panel unit root tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 679-686.
    26. Dimitris Christopoulos & Eftymios Tsionas, 2002. "Non-Sationarity in the Consumption-Income Ratio: Further Evidence from Panel and Assymetric Unit Root Tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(12), pages 1-5.
    27. Fallahi, Firouz, 2012. "The stationarity of consumption–income ratios: Evidence from bootstrapping confidence intervals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 137-140.
    28. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2002:i:12:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    30. Deaton, Angus S, 1977. "Involuntary Saving through Unanticipated Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 899-910, December.
    31. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, May.
    32. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "Stochastic properties of the consumption-income ratios in central and eastern European countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 31(2), pages 193-207.
    33. Janice Boucher Breuer & Robert McNown & Myles S. Wallace, 2001. "Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit‐Root Tests with an Illustration from Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 482-493, August.
    34. Cook, Steven, 2005. "The stationarity of consumption-income ratios: Evidence from minimum LM unit root testing," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 55-60, October.
    35. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 1999. "Is the consumption-income ratio stationary? Evidence from panel unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 309-314, September.
    36. Mark Hon & Soo-Keong Yong, 2004. "The price of owning a car: an analysis of auction quota premium in Singapore," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 739-751.
    37. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    38. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    39. Abeysinghe, Tilak & Choy, Keen Meng, 2004. "The aggregate consumption puzzle in Singapore," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 563-578, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Muhammad Shahbaz & Chris Stewart, 2018. "Is the consumption-income ratio stationary in African countries? Evidence from new time series tests that allow for structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(38), pages 4122-4136, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Muhammad Shahbaz & Chris Stewart, 2018. "Is the consumption-income ratio stationary in African countries? Evidence from new time series tests that allow for structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(38), pages 4122-4136, August.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2019. "How Do Carbon Emissions Respond to Economic Shocks? Evidence from Low-, Middle- and High-Income Countries," MPRA Paper 93976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2019.
    3. Omay, Tolga & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Stewart, Chris, 2021. "Is There Really Hysteresis in OECD Countries’ Unemployment Rates? New Evidence Using a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 107691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2021.
    4. Tolga Omay & Muhammad Shahbaz & Chris Stewart, 2021. "Is there really hysteresis in the OECD unemployment rates? New evidence using a Fourier panel unit root test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 875-901, November.
    5. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    6. Mario Cerrato & Christian De Peretti & Chris Stewart, 2013. "Is The Consumption–Income Ratio Stationary? Evidence From Linear And Non-Linear Panel Unit Root Tests For Oecd And Non-Oecd Countries," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(1), pages 102-120, January.
    7. Sadiye Baykara & Erdinç Telatar, 2012. "The Stationarity Of Consumption-Income Ratios With Nonlinear And Asymmetric Unit Root Tests: Evidence From Fourteen Transition Economies," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20129, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    8. Diego Romero-Avila, 2008. "A confirmatory analysis of the unit root hypothesis for OECD consumption-income ratios," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2271-2278.
    9. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ranjbar, Omid & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2021. "Testing the persistence of shocks on renewable energy consumption: Evidence from a quantile unit-root test with smooth breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    10. Gomes, Fábio A. R. & Franchini, Douglas de S., 2008. "The Stationarity of Consumption–Income Ratios: Evidence from South American Countries," Insper Working Papers wpe_123, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    11. Martin B. Schmidt, 2021. "On the evolution of athlete anthropometric measurements: racial integration, expansion, and steroids," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3419-3443, December.
    12. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Heshmati, Almas & Azam, Muhammad, 2020. "Are unemployment rates in OECD countries stationary? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Are OECD consumption-income ratios stationary after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 107-117, January.
    14. Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek & Ispir, M. Serdar & Kok, Dundar, 2019. "Do stock markets follow a random walk? New evidence for an old question," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 165-175.
    15. Jamal G. HUSEIN & S. Murat KARA, 2023. "Are Shocks To Electricity Consumption Permanent Or Transitory? Evidence From A Panel Stationarity Test With Gradual Structural Breaks For 25 Oecd Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(1), pages 57-76.
    16. He, Huizhen & Ranjbar, Omid & Chang, Tsangyao, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in transition countries: Old wine with new bottle," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 24-32.
    17. Chang, Tsangyao & Chu, Hsiao-Ping & Ranjbar, Omid, 2014. "Are GDP fluctuations transitory or permanent in African countries? Sequential Panel Selection Method," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 380-399.
    18. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    19. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zaman, Khair Uz, 2014. "Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-195.
    20. Alejandro C. García-Cintado & Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2016. "The economic integration of Spain: a change in the inflation pattern," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-41, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumption–income ratio; unit root tests; nonlinearity; cross-sectional dependence; ASEAN countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2017:i:2:p:109-123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.