Reassessing the Dynamic Links between Trade and Growth: New Empirical Evidence from India - Un riesame delle relazioni tra commercio estero e crescita economica:nuova evidenza empirica per l’India
This paper reassesses the dynamic links between trade and growth in India during the post-independence period. The main result is a short-run bi-directional relationship between exports and output growth. This finding is supported both by standard Granger causality tests, and by an alternative estimator which is robust to the integration and cointegration properties of the VAR process. Moreover, I document a long-run unidirectional causal effect from exports to imports growth. I discuss the policy implications of this evidence and conclude that a neutral policy regime, not discriminating between export and strategic domestic sectors, represents a suitable development strategy for India. - L’articolo esamina le relazioni di causalità tra commercio estero e crescita in India nel periodo successivo alla sua indipendenza. Il risultato principale è l’esistenza di una relazione bidirezionale di breve periodo tra esportazioni e crescita economica. Questo risultato è supportato sia dai tradizionali test di causalità di Granger, che da uno stimatore alternativo indipendente dalle proprietà di integrazione e cointegrazione delle serie storiche utilizzate. Viene inoltre evidenziata l’esistenza di una relazione causale di lungo periodo dalla crescita delle esportazioni a quella delle importazioni. La parte finale del lavoro discute le implicazioni di politica economica di questi risultati e conclude che un regime neutrale, che non discrimina tra settori orientati alle esportazioni e settori orientati al mercato interno, rappresenta la strategia di sviluppo più appropriata per l’India.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Garibaldi 4, 16124 Genova, Italy|
Phone: +39 010 27041
Fax: +39 010 2704222
Web page: http://www.ge.camcom.it/IT/Tool/Modulistica
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export-Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, 07.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1993. "The spurious effect of unit roots on vector autoregressions : An analytical study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 229-255, October.
- S. Narayan, 2009. "India," Chapters, in: The Political Economy of Trade Reform in Emerging Markets, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- repec:pid:journl:v:43:y:2004:i:2:p:105-124 is not listed on IDEAS
- Khan, Mohsin S & Knight, Malcolm D, 1988. "Import Compression and Export Performance in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 315-21, May.
- Ramesh Chandra, 2003. "Reinvestigating export-led growth in India using a multivariate cointegration framework," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 37(1), pages 73-86, September.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Muscatelli, V. A. & Stevenson, A. A. & Montagna, C., 1994. "Intra-NIE competition in exports of manufactures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 29-47, August.
- Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Arslan Razmi & Robert Blecker, 2005.
"Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?,"
UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers
2005-02, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics, revised May 2006.
- Arslan Razmi & Robert Blecker, 2008. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 21-48.
- Arslan Razmi & Robert A. Blecker, 2006. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," Working Papers 2006-06, American University, Department of Economics.
- Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- Findlay, Ronald, 1984. "Growth and development in trade models," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 185-236 Elsevier.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Sam Ouliaris, 1987.
"Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
847R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1988.
- Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
- Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Understanding Economic Policy Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 9-41, March.
- Toda, Hiro Y., 1995. "Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1015-1032, October.
- Lucas, Robert E. B., 1989. "Liberalization of Indian trade and industrial licensing : A disaggregated econometric model with simulations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 141-175, July.
- Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1990.
"Cointegration: how short is the long run?,"
Research Working Paper
90-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Storm, Servaas, 1997. "Domestic constraints on export-led growth: a case-study of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 83-119, February.
- Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence (1971-2001)," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 232-248, 05.
- Asafu-Adjaye, John & Chakraborty, Debasish, 1999. "Export-Led Growth and Import Compression: Further Time Series Evidence from LDCs," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 164-75, June.
- Razmi, Arslan, 2007. "Pursuing manufacturing-based export-led growth: Are developing countries increasingly crowding each other out?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 460-482, December.
- Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Angela Procopio)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.