IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/ecoint/0595.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reassessing the Dynamic Links between Trade and Growth: New Empirical Evidence from India - Un riesame delle relazioni tra commercio estero e crescita economica:nuova evidenza empirica per l’India

Author

Listed:
  • Tronzano, Marco

    (Università degli Studi di Genova, Dipartimento di Economia e Metodi Quantitativi)

Abstract

This paper reassesses the dynamic links between trade and growth in India during the post-independence period. The main result is a short-run bi-directional relationship between exports and output growth. This finding is supported both by standard Granger causality tests, and by an alternative estimator which is robust to the integration and cointegration properties of the VAR process. Moreover, I document a long-run unidirectional causal effect from exports to imports growth. I discuss the policy implications of this evidence and conclude that a neutral policy regime, not discriminating between export and strategic domestic sectors, represents a suitable development strategy for India. - L’articolo esamina le relazioni di causalità tra commercio estero e crescita in India nel periodo successivo alla sua indipendenza. Il risultato principale è l’esistenza di una relazione bidirezionale di breve periodo tra esportazioni e crescita economica. Questo risultato è supportato sia dai tradizionali test di causalità di Granger, che da uno stimatore alternativo indipendente dalle proprietà di integrazione e cointegrazione delle serie storiche utilizzate. Viene inoltre evidenziata l’esistenza di una relazione causale di lungo periodo dalla crescita delle esportazioni a quella delle importazioni. La parte finale del lavoro discute le implicazioni di politica economica di questi risultati e conclude che un regime neutrale, che non discrimina tra settori orientati alle esportazioni e settori orientati al mercato interno, rappresenta la strategia di sviluppo più appropriata per l’India.

Suggested Citation

  • Tronzano, Marco, 2010. "Reassessing the Dynamic Links between Trade and Growth: New Empirical Evidence from India - Un riesame delle relazioni tra commercio estero e crescita economica:nuova evidenza empirica per l’India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 63(2), pages 217-244.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0595
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iei1946.it/RePEc/ccg/TRONZANO%20217_244.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grabowski, Richard, 2009. "An alternative Indian model?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 50-61, January.
    2. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    3. Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
    4. Asafu-Adjaye, John & Chakraborty, Debasish, 1999. "Export-Led Growth and Import Compression: Further Time Series Evidence from LDCs," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 164-175, June.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
    7. Riezman, Raymond G & Whiteman, Charles H & Summers, Peter M, 1996. "The Engine of Growth or Its Handmaiden? A Time-Series Assessment of Export-Led Growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 77-110.
    8. Arslan Razmi & Robert Blecker, 2008. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 21-48.
    9. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    10. Lucas, Robert E. B., 1989. "Liberalization of Indian trade and industrial licensing : A disaggregated econometric model with simulations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 141-175, July.
    11. Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Understanding Economic Policy Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 9-41, March.
    12. Muscatelli, V. A. & Stevenson, A. A. & Montagna, C., 1994. "Intra-NIE competition in exports of manufactures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 29-47, August.
    13. Toda, Hiro Y. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1993. "The spurious effect of unit roots on vector autoregressions : An analytical study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 229-255, October.
    14. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    15. Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    16. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export‐Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, July.
    17. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Anatomy of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Chapters, in: Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes, pages 7-52, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Cointegration and Causality Evidence (1971–2001)," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 232-248, May.
    19. Anne O. Krueger, 1978. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Liberalization Attempts and Consequences," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue78-1, July.
    20. Storm, Servaas, 1997. "Domestic constraints on export-led growth: a case-study of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 83-119, February.
    21. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    22. Razmi, Arslan, 2007. "Pursuing manufacturing-based export-led growth: Are developing countries increasingly crowding each other out?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 460-482, December.
    23. Findlay, Ronald, 1984. "Growth and development in trade models," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 185-236, Elsevier.
    24. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    25. Khan, Mohsin S & Knight, Malcolm D, 1988. "Import Compression and Export Performance in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 315-321, May.
    26. Ramesh Chandra, 2003. "Reinvestigating export-led growth in India using a multivariate cointegration framework," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 37(1), pages 73-86, September.
    27. Toda, Hiro Y., 1995. "Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1015-1032, October.
    28. Xu, Zhenhui, 1996. "On the Causality between Export Growth and GDP Growth: An Empirical Reinvestigation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 172-184, June.
    29. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    30. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    31. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    32. S. Narayan, 2009. "India," Chapters, in: Peter Draper & Philip Alves & Razeen Sally (ed.), The Political Economy of Trade Reform in Emerging Markets, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    33. Musleh-Ud Din, 2004. "Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate Time-series Framework," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 105-124.
    34. Jagdish N. Bhagwati, 1978. "Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Anatomy and Consequences of Exchange Control Regimes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bhag78-1, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Shahbaz & Pervaz Azim & Khalil Ahmad, 2011. "Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Pakistan: Further Evidence," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 182-197.
    2. László Kónya & Jai Pal Singh, 2006. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in India," Working Papers 2006.06, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    3. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    4. Ambreen FATEMAH & Abdul QAYYUM, 2018. "Modeling the impact of exports on the economic growth of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 56-64, March.
    5. Ranjan Kumar Dash, 2009. "Revisited Export-Led Growth Hypothesis," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 10(2), pages 305-324, July.
    6. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    7. Tang, Chor Foon, 2010. "The determinants of health expenditure in Malaysia: A time series analysis," MPRA Paper 24356, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. P. K. Mishra, 2011. "The Dynamics of Relationship between exports and economic growth in India," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 4(2), pages 53-70, August.
    9. Abdullahi Ahmed & Enjiang Cheng & George Messinis, 2011. "The role of exports, FDI and imports in development: evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3719-3731.
    10. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    11. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    12. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2012. "The Dynamic of Financial Development, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 201-219, June.
    13. Baker, Mindy Lyn, 2009. "Three essays concerning agriculture and energy," ISU General Staff Papers 200901010800001849, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Sahoo, Auro Kumar & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu & Sahu, Naresh Chandra, 2014. "Mining export, industrial production and economic growth: A cointegration and causality analysis for India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-34.
    15. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Modelling Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Consumption in China: Cointegration and Multivariate Causality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, October.
    16. Takeshi Inoue, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Aggregate Export Demand Function in Post-Liberalization India," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 79-88, April.
    17. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2004. "Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 563-581.
    18. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2003. "An empirical analysis of China's aggregate import demand function," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 142-163.
    19. Helmi Hamdi, 2013. "Testing export-led growth in Tunisia and Morocco: New evidence using the Toda and Yamamoto procedure," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 677-686.
    20. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Houda Ben Haj Boubaker, 2011. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Tunisia," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1), pages 6-21, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Trade; Granger Causality Tests; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0595. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Angela Procopio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cacogit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.