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Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?

Author

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  • Arslan Razmi

    () (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts - Amherst)

  • Robert A. Blecker

    () (Department of Economics, American University)

Abstract

This paper tests for a ‘fallacy of composition’ by analysing the demand for exports of the 18 developing countries that are most specialised in manufactures in the markets of the 10 largest industrial countries. Estimated export equations (both time-series and panel data) suggest that most developing countries compete with other developing country exporters rather than with industrialised country producers. A smaller number of countries that export more high-technology products compete with industrialised country producers and also have higher expenditure elasticities for their exports. Thus, the fallacy of composition applies mainly to the larger group of countries exporting mostly low-technology products.

Suggested Citation

  • Arslan Razmi & Robert A. Blecker, 2006. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," Working Papers 2006-06, American University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:amu:wpaper:0606
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    1. Bruno Carballa Smichowski & Cédric Durand & Steven Knauss, 2016. "Uneven development patterns in global value chains," CEPN Working Papers hal-01368948, HAL.
    2. Porcile, Gabriel & de Souza, Alexandre Gomes & Viana, Ricardo, 2011. "External debt sustainability and policy rules in a small globalized economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 269-276, September.
    3. Razmi, Arslan, 2007. "Pursuing manufacturing-based export-led growth: Are developing countries increasingly crowding each other out?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 460-482, December.
    4. Robert A. Blecker & Arslan Razmi, 2010. "Export-led Growth, Real Exchange Rates and the Fallacy of Composition," Chapters,in: Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 19 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. ., 2012. "Is East Asia a “Natural Trade Bloc”? The Trade Complementarity Index, the Intensity Index, and the Bias Index," Chapters,in: Trade and Industrial Development in East Asia, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Rodrigo Zeidan & Marcelo Resende, 2009. "Measuring Market Conduct in the Brazilian Cement Industry: A Dynamic Econometric Investigation," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 34(3), pages 231-244, May.
    7. Saygılı, Hülya & Saygılı, Mesut, 2011. "Structural changes in exports of an emerging economy: Case of Turkey," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 342-360.
    8. Sanika Sulochani Ramanayake & Keun Lee, 2016. "Differential impacts of currency undervaluation on growth and exports in natural resource vs. manufacturing exporting countries," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2016-023, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    9. Khan, Haider, 2013. "Industrialization and Development Strategies in the 21st Century: Towards Sustainable Innovation Systems," MPRA Paper 50168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Marconi, Nelson & Reis, Cristina Fróes de Borja & Araújo, Eliane Cristina de, 2016. "Manufacturing and economic development: The actuality of Kaldor's first and second laws," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 75-89.
    11. Tronzano, Marco, 2010. "Reassessing the Dynamic Links between Trade and Growth: New Empirical Evidence from India - Un riesame delle relazioni tra commercio estero e crescita economica:nuova evidenza empirica per l’India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 63(2), pages 217-244.
    12. Razmi, Arslan, 2015. "Growth and Distribution in Low Income Economies: Modifying Post Keynesian Analysis in Light of Theory and History," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2015-16, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    13. Khan, Haider A., 2011. "Lessons from Korean development experience," MPRA Paper 39387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. William MILBERG & Deborah WINKLER, 2011. "Economic and social upgrading in global production networks: Problems of theory and measurement," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 150(3-4), pages 341-365, December.
    15. Sanika Sulochani Ramanayake & Keun Lee, 2016. "Differential impacts of currency undervaluation on growth and exports in natural resource vs. manufacturing exporting countries," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2016-023, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    16. Khan, Haider A, 2010. "Development Strategies: Lessons from the Experiences of South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series 010, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. William Milberg, Rudiger von Arnim, 2007. "WP 2006-3 U.S. Offshoring: Implications for Economic Growth and Income Distribution," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2006-3, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    18. ., 2012. "East Asian Models of Development," Chapters,in: Trade and Industrial Development in East Asia, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Khan, Haider, 2013. "Bangladesh: Towards a Non-partisan Search for a Pro-people National Political Economic Strategy during Crisis," MPRA Paper 49518, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Giorgia Giovannetti & Marco Sanfilippo, 2009. "Do Chinese Exports Crowd-out African Goods? An Econometric Analysis by Country and Sector," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 21(4), pages 506-530, September.
    21. William Milberg, 2007. "WP 2007-9 Shifting Sources and Uses of Profits: Sustaining U.S. Financialization with Global Value Chains," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2007-9, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    22. ., 2012. "Catching up or Falling Behind Hypothesis I: Trade Competitiveness between the Leader and Followers on All Manufactured Exports," Chapters,in: Trade and Industrial Development in East Asia, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Developing country exports of manufactures; intra-developing country competition; fallacy of composition; real exchange rates; technological ladder; adding-up constraint.;

    JEL classification:

    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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