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Pursuing Manufacturing-BasedExport-Led Growth: Are Developing Countries Increasingly Crowding Each Other Out?


  • Arslan Razmi

    () (University of Massachusetts Amherst)


This study empirically investigates the presence of crowding out effects emerging from intra-developing country competition in export markets for manufactured goods. Export equations are estimated for a panel consisting of twenty major developing country exporters of manufac- tures, after developing weighted price and quantity indexes based on their exports to thirteen major industrialized countries. The results indicate that in spite of an increase in the elasticity of industrialized country expenditures on imported products, crowding out effects became much more significant in the 1990s. The estimated crowding out effects vary across time periods, SITC categories, and levels of technological sophistication of exports. JEL Categories: F10, O01, F42

Suggested Citation

  • Arslan Razmi, 2006. "Pursuing Manufacturing-BasedExport-Led Growth: Are Developing Countries Increasingly Crowding Each Other Out?," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2006-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2006-05

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lall, Sanjaya, 1998. "Exports of Manufactures by Developing Countries: Emerging Patterns of Trade and Location," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 54-73, Summer.
    2. Faini, Riccardo & Clavijo, Fernando & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel, 1992. "The fallacy of composition argument : Is it relevant for LDCs' manufactures exports?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 865-882, May.
    3. Terrie L. Walmsley & Thomas W. Hertel, 2001. "China's Accession to the WTO: Timing is Everything," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(8), pages 1019-1049, September.
    4. Muscatelli, V. A. & Stevenson, A. A. & Montagna, C., 1994. "Intra-NIE competition in exports of manufactures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 29-47, August.
    5. Alan G. Ahearne & John G. Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John W. Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," Working Paper Series WP-03-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Inder, Brett, 1993. "Estimating long-run relationships in economics : A comparison of different approaches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1-3), pages 53-68.
    7. Spilimbergo, Antonio & Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2003. "Real effective exchange rate and the constant elasticity of substitution assumption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 337-354, August.
    8. Sarkar, Prabirjit & Singer, H. W., 1993. "Manufacture--manufacture terms of trade deterioration: A reply," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1617-1620, October.
    9. Kaplinsky, Raphael, 1993. "Export Processing Zones in the Dominican Republic: Transforming manufactures into commodities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(11), pages 1851-1865, November.
    10. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Balassa, Bela, 1988. "The adding up problem," Policy Research Working Paper Series 30, The World Bank.
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    More about this item


    Crowding out; export displacement; real exchange rates; intra-developing country competition; dynamic panel data techniques; generalized method of moments.;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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