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The Contractionary Short-Run Effects of Nominal Devaluation in Developing Countries: Some Neglected Nuances

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  • Arslan Razmi

    () (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

Abstract

This paper extends the model developed by Krugman and Taylor (1978) to take into account interesting features of the evolving structure of global trade. The growing presence of transnational production chains and differential pricing behaviour of exports destined for industrial and developing countries are accommodated. Individual country and panel data pass-through estimates derived from several econometric approaches are provided to justify the latter extension. The likelihood of contractionary short-run effects of devaluations is shown to be positively related to: (1) the proportion of a country's exports destined for other developing countries, and (2) the presence of TNCs in either the export or home goods-producing sector. Unlike the Krugman-Taylor case, devaluation will generally have a contractionary impact even if: (1) trade is initially balanced, (2) consumption behaviour does not differ between wage and profit earners, and (3) the government sector has a high marginal propensity to consume in the short-run. The resulting policy implications underline the need to take into account these increasingly important nuances of international trade while designing exchange rate policies for developing countries. JEL Categories: F12, F14, F23, F41

Suggested Citation

  • Arslan Razmi, 2005. "The Contractionary Short-Run Effects of Nominal Devaluation in Developing Countries: Some Neglected Nuances," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2005-09, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:ums:papers:2005-09
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    File URL: http://www.umass.edu/economics/publications/2005-09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feinberg, Robert M, 2000. "The Role of International Discipline in Three Developing Economies: Exchange Rate Effects on Domestic Prices in Colombia, Korea, and Morocco," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 126-133, February.
    2. Faini, Riccardo & Clavijo, Fernando & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel, 1992. "The fallacy of composition argument : Is it relevant for LDCs' manufactures exports?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 865-882, May.
    3. Carlos F. Diaz Alejandro, 1963. "A Note on the Impact of Devaluation and the Redistributive Effect," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 577-577.
    4. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    5. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
    6. Muscatelli, V. A. & Stevenson, A. A. & Montagna, C., 1994. "Intra-NIE competition in exports of manufactures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 29-47, August.
    7. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
    8. J. Saul Lizondo & Peter J. Montiel, 1989. "Contractionary Devaluation in Developing Countries: An Analytical Overview," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(1), pages 182-227, March.
    9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
    10. Jaewoo Lee, 1997. "The Response Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Market Concentration In A Small Economy: The Evidence From Korea," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 142-145, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Differential pass-through elasticities; contractionary devaluations; transnational corporations; error correction models; autoregressive distributed lag models; structuralist models.;

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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