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China's Accession to the WTO: Timing is Everything

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  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Terrie Walmsley

Abstract

REVISED September 2000 Paper presented at the Conference on Global Economics Transformation after the Asian Economic Crisis, Hong Kong, May 27-28, 2000. Forthcoming in World Economy. Since China’s application in 1987 to resume its status in the Generalized Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO) there has been a great deal of debate over the timing of China’s accession. Although most of the issues relating to the timing of China’s trade liberalization have been resolved, the abolition of restrictions on Chinese textiles and clothing may still be subject to delay if the United States and Europe choose to implement the safeguards contained in the their bilateral accession agreements with China as well as in the original Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC). In this paper, the effects of alternative target dates for the elimination of restrictions on textiles quotas are examined. Since this issue revolves fundamentally around the question of timing, it is most appropriately addressed in a dynamic model. In this study we use the Dynamic GTAP Model. This is applied to a 19-region by 22-commodity aggregation of the GTAP Data Base, supplemented with foreign income data. The paper finds that timing is indeed an important determinant of the profile of structural adjustment required in China and the rest of the world. In light of their interest in delayed implementation the ATC, it is interesting to note that our results suggest slower elimination of these quotas is detrimental to national welfare in North America and Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Hertel, Thomas W. & Terrie Walmsley, 2000. "China's Accession to the WTO: Timing is Everything," GTAP Working Papers 403, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  • Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:403 Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 13
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    Cited by:

    1. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
    2. Jörg Mayer, 2002. "The Fallacy of Composition: A Review of the Literature," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 875-894, June.
    3. Elena Ianchovichina & Terrie Walmsley, 2005. "Impact of China's WTO Accession on East Asia," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 23(2), pages 261-277, April.
    4. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    5. John Whalley & Shunming Zhang, 2011. "State-Owned Enterprise Behavioural Responses To Trade Reforms: Some Analytics And Numerical Simulation Results Using Chinese Data," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: China's Integration Into The World Economy, chapter 13, pages 361-389 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2001. "Trade Liberalization in China’s Accession to WTO," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 16, pages 421-445.
    7. Resmini, Laura, 2006. "Theoretical and Methodological Study on Comparative Advantages in Dynamic Growth Regions, Convergence and Inequalities Patterns," Papers DYNREG03, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Arslan Razmi & Robert Blecker, 2008. "Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving Up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 21-48.
    9. Boureima Sawadogo & Tegawende Juliette Nana & Maimouna Hama Natama & Fidèle Bama & Emma Tapsoba & Kassoum Zerbo, 2015. "Impact de l'expansion économique et commerciale de la Chine sur la croissance et l'emploi au Burkina Faso: une analyse en équilibre général calculable," Working Papers MPIA 2015-03, PEP-MPIA.
    10. Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2002. "China in the International Segmentation of Production Processes," Working Papers 2002-02, CEPII research center.
    11. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00905755 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I., 2001. "China'S Accession To The Wto And Impacts On Livestock Trade And Production Patterns," International Trade in Livestock Products Symposium, January 18-19, 2001, Auckland, New Zealand 14540, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    13. John Whalley, 2003. "Liberalization in China's Key Service Sectors Following WTO Accession: Some Scenarios and Issues of Measurement," NBER Working Papers 10143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Diao, Xinshen & Fan, Shenggen & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2003. "China's WTO accession: impacts on regional agricultural income-- a multi-region, general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 332-351, June.
    15. Peter Mavromatis & Marnie Griffith, 2011. "Error Reduction strategies for the 1998-2005 USAGE Forecast," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-217, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    16. Kym Anderson & Shunli Yao, 2003. "China, Gmos And World Trade In Agricultural And Textile Products," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 157-169, June.
    17. Arslan Razmi, 2006. "Pursuing Manufacturing-BasedExport-Led Growth: Are Developing Countries Increasingly Crowding Each Other Out?," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2006-05, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    18. Diao, Xinshen & Fan, Shenggen & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2002. "How China's WTO accession affects rural economy in the less-developed regions," TMD discussion papers 87, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Razmi, Arslan, 2007. "Pursuing manufacturing-based export-led growth: Are developing countries increasingly crowding each other out?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 460-482, December.
    20. Nicolas R Blancher & Thomas Rumbaugh, 2004. "China; International Trade and WTO Accession," IMF Working Papers 04/36, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
    22. Jong Eun Lee, 2004. "The sequential issue in free trade areas: Policy implication for Korea," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 165-174.
    23. Peter Walkenhorst, 2004. "Liberalising Trade in Textiles and Clothing: A Survey of Quantitative Studies," International Trade 0401007, EconWPA.

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