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Impact of commodity terms-of-trade shocks at disaggregate level

Author

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  • Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez
  • Amalia Morales-Zumaquero

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the impact of country-specific commodity terms-of-trade shocks on economic growth for developing and emerging countries, not only at aggregate level but also at disaggregate level (agricultural raw materials, food and beverages, energy, and metals). Results suggest: (i) at the country group level, we find evidence supporting the so-called “terms-of-trade disconnect puzzle”; (ii) at the specific country level, the evidence is mixed (i.e., “blessing effect”, “curse effect” or “negligible effect”); (iii) at the commodity category level, it seems that output is mainly affected by shocks to the terms-of-trade for metals, followed to a lesser extent by those for energy; and (iv) statistically significant shocks occur mainly in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2026. "Impact of commodity terms-of-trade shocks at disaggregate level," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 21(3), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0341374
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0341374
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Dehn, Jan, 2000. "The effects on growth of commodity price uncertainty and shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2455, The World Bank.
    5. Hugh Miller & Juan-Pablo Martinez, 2025. "The changing dynamics in global metal markets: How the energy transition and geo-fragmentation may disrupt commodity prices," OECD Environment Working Papers 258, OECD Publishing.
    6. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks: Implications for Economic Growth," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-10, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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