De riesgo y pánico: una analítica de volatilidad y crecimiento 1960-2006
[About risk and panic, an overview of volatility and growth 1960-2006]
It has long been believed that commodity price variability causes problems for primary producing and dependent countries. This paper tests the effects of price uncertainty (volatility) on economic growth. The model is constructed using a yearly panel data for the ten biggest countries in South America. The results show that output per worker varies enormously across countries, even within the region. Our analysis shows that exogenous shocks continue having a significant negative effect on growth on developing countries. Despite volatility series are not constant through time, we found a homogenous negative effect within the region, but it is heterogeneous when we apply a causality test. The effect is commonly observed in economic time series and it shows that growth rates are significantly reduced by large discrete negative commodity price shocks. Our analysis documented that the impact on productivity (output per worker) is driven through capital formation and foreign investment, as well as, by differences in what we call ‘social infrastructure’ (i.e. institutions and government policies).
|Date of creation:||Jun 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Tarek Coury, 2002.
"Trade Openness, Investment Instability and Terms-of-Trade Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
9332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Coury, Tarek, 2003. "Trade openness, investment instability and terms-of-trade volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 285-306, December.
- Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity Price Uncertainty and Shocks: Implications for Economic Growth," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-10, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001.
"The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2000. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 7771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Paul, 1994.
"New goods, old theory, and the welfare costs of trade restrictions,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 5-38, February.
- Paul M. Romer, 1993. "New Goods, Old Theory, and the Welfare Costs of Trade Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 4452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1991.
"International Trade with Endogenous Technological Change,"
NBER Working Papers
3594, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rivera-Batiz, Luis A. & Romer, Paul M., 1991. "International trade with endogenous technological change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 971-1001, May.
- Ray Barrell, 2000. "Choosing the regime: macroeconomic effects of UK entry into EMU," NIESR Discussion Papers 174, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Jan Dehn, 2000. "Commodity price uncertainty and shocks: implications for economic growth," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-10, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.