IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0294456.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of free trade agreements on the stock market: Evidence from Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • Huy Pham
  • Priyantha Mudalige
  • Hanh Le
  • Mai Bui
  • Van Nguyen
  • Vikash Ramiah
  • Tuan Chu
  • Tuan Hung Vu

Abstract

This study examines the effects of news events related to the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on the Vietnam stock market from 2010 to 2020. We calculate sectoral abnormal returns prior to, during, and after announcements and find that the Vietnamese stock market is susceptible to these events. We discovered that the announcement had a negative impact on the market, which might diminish the effectiveness of the Agreement. The findings show that more than half of Vietnam’s sectors had an immediate reaction to EVFTA announcements, with fourteen reacting negatively and six responding positively. Two of the ten events did not have any immediate impact on these industries but all events resulted in either early or delayed reactions. We also find market scepticism and major changes in the deal led to the emergence of a diamond risk structure. We run multiple robustness tests to account for market integration and other factors that may affect stock returns. In addition, we explore potential sectoral systematic risk changes following these occurrences using different ARCH-type models. These additional tests confirm the robustness of our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Huy Pham & Priyantha Mudalige & Hanh Le & Mai Bui & Van Nguyen & Vikash Ramiah & Tuan Chu & Tuan Hung Vu, 2024. "The effects of free trade agreements on the stock market: Evidence from Vietnam," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(2), pages 1-20, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0294456
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294456
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0294456
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0294456&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0294456?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kewei Hou, 2007. "Industry Information Diffusion and the Lead-lag Effect in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1113-1138.
    2. Huy Pham & Van Nguyen & Vikash Ramiah & Priyantha Mudalige & Imad Moosa, 2019. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Singapore Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Joon Chae, 2005. "Trading Volume, Information Asymmetry, and Timing Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 413-442, February.
    4. Breinlich, Holger, 2014. "Heterogeneous firm-level responses to trade liberalization: A test using stock price reactions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 270-285.
    5. Phengpis, Chanwit & Swanson, Peggy E., 2006. "Portfolio diversification effects of trading blocs: The case of NAFTA," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 315-331, July.
    6. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson & Ahmed Usman, 2018. "The Economic Effects of Brexit: Evidence from the Stock Market," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 581-623, December.
    7. Malatesta, Paul H. & Thompson, Rex, 1985. "Partially anticipated events: A model of stock price reactions with an application to corporate acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 237-250, June.
    8. Chaplinsky, Susan & Hansen, Robert S, 1993. "Partial Anticipation, the Flow of Information and the Economic Impact of Corporate Debt Sales," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 709-732.
    9. Ali Ataullah & Xiaojing Song & Mark Tippett, 2011. "A modified Corrado test for assessing abnormal security returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 589-601.
    10. Prabhala, N R, 1997. "Conditional Methods in Event Studies and an Equilibrium Justification for Standard Event-Study Procedures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38.
    11. Corrado, Charles J., 1989. "A nonparametric test for abnormal security-price performance in event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 385-395, August.
    12. Ye Cai & Hoje Jo & Carrie Pan, 2012. "Doing Well While Doing Bad? CSR in Controversial Industry Sectors," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 467-480, July.
    13. Acharya, Sankarshan, 1993. "Value of Latent Information: Alternative Event Study Methods," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 363-385, March.
    14. Kenichi Kawasaki, 2003. "The Impact of Free Trade Agreements in Asia," Discussion papers 03018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Rasyad A. Parinduri & Shandre M. Thangavelu, 2013. "Trade liberalization, free trade agreements, and the value of firms: Stock market evidence from Singapore," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 924-941, September.
    16. Bram Daelemans & Joseph P. Daniels & Farrokh Nourzad, 2018. "Free Trade Agreements and Volatility of Stock Returns and Exchange Rates: Evidence from NAFTA," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 141-163, February.
    17. Ramiah, Vikash & Martin, Belinda & Moosa, Imad, 2013. "How does the stock market react to the announcement of green policies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1747-1758.
    18. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    19. Tobias Burggraf & Ralf Fendel & Toan Luu Duc Huynh, 2020. "Political news and stock prices: evidence from Trump’s trade war," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(18), pages 1485-1488, October.
    20. Bhagat, Sanjai & Moyen, Nathalie & Suh, Inchul, 2005. "Investment and internal funds of distressed firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 449-472, June.
    21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    22. Nagpurnanand R. Prabhala, 1997. "Conditional Methods in Event-Studies and an Equilibrium Justification for Standard Event-Study Procedures," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm55, Yale School of Management.
    23. Bley, Jorg & Saad, Mohsen, 2011. "The effect of financial liberalization on stock-return volatility in GCC markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 662-685.
    24. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "The Summary Informativeness of Stock Trades: An Econometric Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 571-595.
    25. Chesney, Marc & Reshetar, Ganna & Karaman, Mustafa, 2011. "The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 253-267, February.
    26. Paul A. Borochin, 2014. "When Does a Merger Create Value? Using Option Prices to Elicit Market Beliefs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 445-466, June.
    27. Thompson, Aileen J., 1994. "Trade liberalization, comparative advantage, and scale economies stock market evidence from Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 1-27, August.
    28. Arturo Lorenzo Valdés & Leticia Armenta Fraire & Rocío Durán Vázquez, 2016. "A copula-TGARCH approach of conditional dependence between oil price and stock market index: the case of Mexico," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 31(1), pages 47-63.
    29. Kathryn Barraclough & David T. Robinson & Tom Smith & Robert E. Whaley, 2013. "Using Option Prices to Infer Overpayments and Synergies in M&A Transactions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(3), pages 695-722.
    30. Huy Pham & Van Nguyen & Vikash Ramiah & Kashif Saleem & Nisreen Moosa, 2019. "The effects of the Paris climate agreement on stock markets: evidence from the German stock market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(57), pages 6068-6075, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huy Pham & Van Nguyen & Vikash Ramiah & Priyantha Mudalige & Imad Moosa, 2019. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Singapore Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Ramiah, Vikash & Wallace, Damien & Veron, Jose Francisco & Reddy, Krishna & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The effects of recent terrorist attacks on risk and return in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 13-22.
    3. Huy Nguyen Anh Pham & Vikash Ramiah & Imad Moosa, 2020. "The effects of environmental regulation on the stock market: the French experience," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3279-3304, December.
    4. Borochin, Paul & Golec, Joseph, 2016. "Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 169-193.
    5. Guo, Lin & Mech, Timothy S., 2000. "Conditional event studies, anticipation, and asymmetric information: the case of seasoned equity issues and pre-issue information releases," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 113-141, August.
    6. Monica Martinez-Blasco & Vanessa Serrano & Francesc Prior & Jordi Cuadros, 2023. "Analysis of an event study using the Fama–French five-factor model: teaching approaches including spreadsheets and the R programming language," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.
    7. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, July-Dece.
    8. António Martins & Ana Serra, 2011. "Market impact of international sporting and cultural events," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 35(4), pages 382-416, October.
    9. Nerger, Gian-Luca & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Wang, Mei, 2021. "Which industries benefited from Trump environmental policy news? Evidence from industrial stock market reactions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Ian Tonks, 2010. "Discussion of To Trade or Not To Trade: The Strategic Trading of Insiders around News Announcements," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3‐4), pages 408-421, April.
    11. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 6-2015, January-A.
    12. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2017. "Analyzing the determinants of terrorist attacks and their market reactions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 57-73.
    13. Hoang, Trang Cam & Pham, Huy & Ramiah, Vikash & Moosa, Imad & Le, Danh Vinh, 2020. "The effects of information disclosure regulation on stock markets: Evidence from Vietnam," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    14. Scruggs, John T., 2007. "Estimating the cross-sectional market response to an endogenous event: Naked vs. underwritten calls of convertible bonds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 220-247, March.
    15. Barry A.N. Bloom & Leonard A. Jackson, 2016. "Abnormal Stock Returns and Volume Activity Surrounding Lodging Firms' CEO Transition Announcements," Tourism Economics, , vol. 22(1), pages 141-161, February.
    16. Ramiah, Vikash & Martin, Belinda & Moosa, Imad, 2013. "How does the stock market react to the announcement of green policies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1747-1758.
    17. Almaqableh, Laith & Reddy, Krishna & Pereira, Vijay & Ramiah, Vikash & Wallace, Damien & Francisco Veron, Jose, 2022. "An investigative study of links between terrorist attacks and cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 177-188.
    18. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    19. Pham, Huy Nguyen Anh & Ramiah, Vikash & Moosa, Nisreen & Huynh, Tam & Pham, Nhi, 2018. "The financial effects of Trumpism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 264-274.
    20. Atkas, Nihat & Bodt, Eric de & Roll, Richard, 2001. "Market Response to European Regulation," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt0qc9p8gf, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0294456. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.