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Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare

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  • Borochin, Paul
  • Golec, Joseph

Abstract

Many event studies only measure a fraction of an event's full value effect because they do not adjust for market anticipation of the event. We present a method based on stock and options prices to measure the full effect that accounts for market anticipation. We apply the method to the passage of Obamacare. Our method estimates the full value effect of Obamacare on the healthcare sector as $55 billion, compared to $16 billion when market anticipation is ignored. The method is applicable to most major events because it only requires that some affected firms have traded stock options.

Suggested Citation

  • Borochin, Paul & Golec, Joseph, 2016. "Using options to measure the full value-effect of an event: Application to Obamacare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 169-193.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:120:y:2016:i:1:p:169-193
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.009
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    2. Huy Pham & Van Nguyen & Vikash Ramiah & Priyantha Mudalige & Imad Moosa, 2019. "The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Singapore Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, November.
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    5. Kostakis, Alexandros & Mu, Liangyi & Otsubo, Yoichi, 2023. "Detecting political event risk in the option market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
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    7. Huy Nguyen Anh Pham & Vikash Ramiah & Imad Moosa, 2020. "The effects of environmental regulation on the stock market: the French experience," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3279-3304, December.
    8. Ramiah, Vikash & Wallace, Damien & Veron, Jose Francisco & Reddy, Krishna & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The effects of recent terrorist attacks on risk and return in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 13-22.
    9. Han, Jianlei & Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Pan, Zheyao (Terry) & Smith, Tom, 2019. "The wealth effects of the announcement of the Australian carbon pricing scheme," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 399-409.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event study; Options; Valuation; Healthcare reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private

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