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Too many graduates? An application of the Gottschalk–Hansen model to young British graduates between 2001–2010

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  • Nigel O’Leary
  • Peter Sloane

Abstract

A model of supply and demand is applied to UK data over the period 2001–2010 to define graduate jobs in terms of the proportion of graduates and/or the graduate earnings mark-up within occupations. Within such a framework it is found that there has been an upward shift in the likelihood of young British university graduates being employed in non-graduate jobs over the course of the past decade. Such a period has coincided with a continued (and rapid) expansion of the UK higher education sector, and the findings presented here highlight the need for government policy in this area to be set in consideration of labour market needs.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigel O’Leary & Peter Sloane, 2016. "Too many graduates? An application of the Gottschalk–Hansen model to young British graduates between 2001–2010," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 945-967.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:68:y:2016:i:4:p:945-967.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpw027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ian Walker & Yu Zhu, 2008. "The College Wage Premium and the Expansion of Higher Education in the UK," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(4), pages 695-709, December.
    2. Peter Elias & Kate Purcell, 2004. "Is Mass Higher Education Working? Evidence from the Labour Market Experiences of Recent Graduates," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 190(1), pages 60-74, October.
    3. Walker, Ian & Zhu, Yu, 2011. "Differences by degree: Evidence of the net financial rates of return to undergraduate study for England and Wales," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1177-1186.
    4. Nigel C. O'Leary & Peter J. Sloane, 2011. "The Wage Premium For University Education In Great Britain During A Decade Of Change," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(4), pages 740-764, July.
    5. O'Leary, Nigel C. & Sloane, Peter J., 2005. "The Return to a University Education in Great Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 193, pages 75-89, July.
    6. Peter Gottschalk & Michael Hansen, 2003. "Is the Proportion of College Workers in Noncollege Jobs Increasing?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 409-448, April.
    7. H. Battu & C. R. Belfield & P. J. Sloane, 1999. "Overeducation Among Graduates: a cohort view," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 21-38.
    8. Amanda Gosling & Stephen Machin & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The Changing Distribution of Male Wages in the U.K," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 635-666.
    9. Francis Green & Yu Zhu, 2010. "Overqualification, job dissatisfaction, and increasing dispersion in the returns to graduate education," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(4), pages 740-763, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francis Green & Golo Henseke, 2016. "The changing graduate labour market: analysis using a new indicator of graduate jobs," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, December.
    2. David Boto-García & Marta Escalonilla, 2022. "University education, mismatched jobs: are there gender differences in the drivers of overeducation?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 861-902, October.
    3. Golo Henseke, 2019. "Against the Grain? Assessing Graduate Labour Market Trends in Germany Through a Task-Based Indicator of Graduate Jobs," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 809-840, January.
    4. Kidd, Michael P. & O'Leary, Nigel & Sloane, Peter, 2017. "The impact of mobility on early career earnings: A quantile regression approach for UK graduates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 90-102.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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