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Too Many Graduates? An Application of the Gottschalk-Hansen Model to Young British Graduates between 2001-2010

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  • O'Leary, Nigel C.

    (Swansea University)

  • Sloane, Peter J.

    (Swansea University)

Abstract

There is an apparent inconsistency in the existing literature on graduate employment in the UK. While analyses of rates of return to graduates or graduate mark-ups show high returns, suggesting that demand has kept up with a rapidly rising supply of graduates, the literature on over-education suggests that many graduates are unable to find employment in graduate jobs and the proportion over-educated has risen over time. Using a simple supply and demand model applied to UK data that defines graduate jobs in terms of the proportion of graduates and/or the graduate earnings mark-up within occupations, we find that there has been a shift in the likelihood of young British university graduates being employed in non-graduate jobs in the recent years of our analysis. This finding is in contrast to existing studies.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Leary, Nigel C. & Sloane, Peter J., 2014. "Too Many Graduates? An Application of the Gottschalk-Hansen Model to Young British Graduates between 2001-2010," IZA Discussion Papers 8413, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nigel C. O'Leary & Peter J. Sloane, 2011. "The Wage Premium For University Education In Great Britain During A Decade Of Change," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(4), pages 740-764, July.
    2. O'Leary, Nigel C. & Sloane, Peter J., 2005. "The Return to a University Education in Great Britain," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 193, pages 75-89, July.
    3. Amanda Gosling & Stephen Machin & Costas Meghir, 2000. "The Changing Distribution of Male Wages in the U.K," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(4), pages 635-666.
    4. Francis Green & Yu Zhu, 2010. "Overqualification, job dissatisfaction, and increasing dispersion in the returns to graduate education," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(4), pages 740-763, October.
    5. H. Battu & C. R. Belfield & P. J. Sloane, 1999. "Overeducation Among Graduates: a cohort view," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 21-38.
    6. Ian Walker & Yu Zhu, 2008. "The College Wage Premium and the Expansion of Higher Education in the UK," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 110(4), pages 695-709, December.
    7. Peter Elias & Kate Purcell, 2004. "Is Mass Higher Education Working? Evidence from the Labour Market Experiences of Recent Graduates," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 190(1), pages 60-74, October.
    8. Peter Gottschalk & Michael Hansen, 2003. "Is the Proportion of College Workers in Noncollege Jobs Increasing?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 409-448, April.
    9. Walker, Ian & Zhu, Yu, 2011. "Differences by degree: Evidence of the net financial rates of return to undergraduate study for England and Wales," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1177-1186.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francis Green & Golo Henseke, 2016. "The changing graduate labour market: analysis using a new indicator of graduate jobs," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-25, December.
    2. David Boto-García & Marta Escalonilla, 2022. "University education, mismatched jobs: are there gender differences in the drivers of overeducation?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 861-902, October.
    3. Golo Henseke, 2019. "Against the Grain? Assessing Graduate Labour Market Trends in Germany Through a Task-Based Indicator of Graduate Jobs," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 809-840, January.
    4. Kidd, Michael P. & O'Leary, Nigel & Sloane, Peter, 2017. "The impact of mobility on early career earnings: A quantile regression approach for UK graduates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 90-102.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    education; wages; graduates; mismatch;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • J0 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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