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Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects

Author

Listed:
  • Chantal C. Cantarelli

    (The University of Sheffield)

  • David Oglethorpe

    (Cranfield University)

  • Bert Wee

    (Delft University of Technology)

Abstract

Lock-in is defined as the tendency to continue with an inefficient decision or project proposal. The front-end phase is critical to project success, yet most studies have focused on lock-in in the implementation phase. Moreover, little is known about the way in which decision-makers perceive the risk of lock-in. In this paper we identify determinants of lock-in in the front-end phase and we reveal decision-makers’ perceptions of risk of lock-in. Our findings show that risk attitudes towards lock-in vary with the level of risk aversion. However, this is not sufficiently acute to drive the level of regret needed to avoid lock-in. This implies that decision-makers do not accurately assess the risk of lock-in and as such their risk perceptions are a mediating factor in the formation of lock-in. Based on escalation of commitment, path dependency, and prospect theory, the main contribution lies in providing a more comprehensive understanding of lock-in in the front-end phase.

Suggested Citation

  • Chantal C. Cantarelli & David Oglethorpe & Bert Wee, 2022. "Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 703-733, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:49:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11116-021-10191-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-021-10191-7
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