Population Growth and the Local Provision of Services: The Role of Primary Schools in Portugal

The shrinking population in many European regions has led to a debate on the relation between the local provision of services of general interest and the demographic growth of different territories. Primary schools have been a frequent focus of this debate, given the significant number of school closures in recent years, as well as their social, economic and symbolic importance for local communities. However, the relationship between primary schools and population growth at the local scale has not been clearly established and is a challenging subject given the potential circular causality between them. This paper analyses this relationship for the mainland municipalities in Portugal between 1999 and 2016, considering three variables—total fertility rates, net migration rates and the number of primary schools—in a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, where all variables are simultaneously considered endogenous and exogenous. Through this approach, it was possible to conclude that, although there is a mutual influence between these variables, the impact of school closures on the growth prospect of a municipality is limited. The main goal of policy decisions regarding the provision of primary schools should, therefore, be the quality of life of local communities, and not so much their role in countering depopulation.