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A Dynamic Origin-constrained Spatial Interaction Model Applied to Poland's Inter-provincial Migration

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Sarra
  • Mariarosaria Del Signore

Abstract

Abstract In contemporary Europe migratory processes are becoming inceasingly important, given the diminishing impact of natural changes on population dynamics. In this paper, we focus on some determinants of internal migration in Poland. The choice of variables is guided by recent considerations about interregional migration in other transitional economies. The quantitative analysis of Polish migration flows has been performed by considering migration interactions over time. A dynamic version of an origin-constrained spatial interaction model is proposed. This approach relies on using the method of offsets, generalizing the Poisson regression framework, and applied to the calibration of spatial interaction models. Modèle dynamique d'interactions spatiales limitées par l'origine, appliqué aux migrations interprovinciales en Pologne RÉSUMÉ Dans l'Europe contemporaine, les processus migratoires acquièrent une importance toujours majeure, compte tenu de la réduction de l'impact des changements naturels sur la dynamique de la population. Dans la présente communication, nous nous concentrons sur certains facteurs déterminants de la migration interne en Pologne. Le choix des variables est déterminé par de récentes considérations concernant les migrations interrégionales dans d'autres économies transitionnelles. On procède à l'analyse quantitative des flux migratoires polonais, en examinant des interactions migratoires progressives. On propose une version dynamique d'un modèle d'interaction spatiale limité par l'origine: ce principe est basé sur l'utilisation de la méthode d'offsets, généralisant le cadre de régression de Poisson, et appliqué au calibrage de modèles d'interaction spatiale. Modelo dinámico de interacción espacial restringido por origen aplicado a la emigración interprovincial de Polonia RÉSUMÉ En la Europa contemporánea, los procesos migratorios son cada vez más importantes debido al decreciente impacto de los cambios naturales sobre la dinámica de la población. En este trabajo, nos centramos en algunos de los determinantes de la emigración interna en Polonia. La elección de variables se guía por consideraciones recientes sobre la emigración interregional en otras economías transicionales. El análisis cuantitativo de los flujos polacos de emigración se ha realizado considerando las interacciones de emigración a través del tiempo. Se propone una versión dinámica de un modelo de interacción espacial restringido por origen. Este planteamiento se basa en el empleo del método de compensaciones (method of offsets), generalizando el marco de regresión Poisson, y aplicándolo a la calibración de modelos de interacción espacial.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Sarra & Mariarosaria Del Signore, 2010. "A Dynamic Origin-constrained Spatial Interaction Model Applied to Poland's Inter-provincial Migration," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 29-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:5:y:2010:i:1:p:29-41
    DOI: 10.1080/17421770903511361
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic spatial interaction models; internal migration; Poisson models; offsets model; C13; C25; R23;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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