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The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity: Evidence from panel data of Bangladesh

Author

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  • Kazi Iqbal
  • Md Abu Bakar Siddique¹

    (Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Bangladesh
    The University of Western Australia, Australia)

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Bangladesh for the period 1975-2008 for 23 regions. First, the study relies on descriptive statistics to explore the long term changes at both country and local level in climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall, humidity and sunshine. Second, it uses regression models to estimate the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Unlike the existing literature, this study exploits within-region time series variations (regional fixed effect) to estimate the impact of long term changes in climatic variables on agricultural productivity in order to control for regional differences, both observed and unobserved. Descriptive statistics shows that overall average, maximum and minimum temperatures in the dry and wet seasons have increased in recent years. Fluctuations in the minimum and maximum temperatures have also increased. Average rainfall in the dry season has increased substantially with greater fluctuations. Regression results show that an increase in the average minimum temperature in the dry season by one unit increases per acre rice output by 3.7% to 11.6%. Average minimum temperature in the wet season is also found to have a negative and significant impact even after controlling for region and year fixed effects. Standard deviations of maximum temperature in both dry and wet seasons are found to have a negative impact on agricultural productivity, though the impact in the wet season loses its significance after controlling for the year fixed effect. In the case of Boro rice, the only variable that is significant after controlling region and year specific heterogeneity is the standard deviation of maximum temperature in the Boro season. The regression results indicate that long term changes in means and standard deviations of the climatic variables have differential impacts on the productivity of rice and thus the overall impact of climate change on agriculture is not unambiguous. We found that when regional variations are considered, it significantly changes the sign and size of the estimates. The impact differs significantly with the choice of weather variables – mean vs. standard deviation (fluctuation), minimum vs. maximum, dry vs. wet seasons. For example, the impact of an increase in one unit of minimum temperature and maximum temperature on rice productivity are different in the same wet season. The choice of weather variables should therefore be driven by scientific knowledge, which the current economics literature lacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazi Iqbal & Md Abu Bakar Siddique¹, 2015. "The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity: Evidence from panel data of Bangladesh," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(6), pages 89-101, Special I.
    • Handle: RePEc:jda:journl:vol.49:year:2015:issue6:pp:89-101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vernon W. Ruttan, 2002. "Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 161-184, Fall.
    2. Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2012. "Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 11-16.
    3. Saleemul Huq & Hannah Reid & Mama Konate & Atiq Rahman & Youba Sokona & Florence Crick, 2004. "Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs)," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 25-43, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Syed Abul Basher & Salim Rashid & Mohammad Riad Uddin, 2023. "Regional convergence in Bangladesh using night lights," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(18), pages 2581-2588, October.
    3. Md. Nur Islam & Md. Abdul Wadud, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Bangladesh: A Review," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 4(9), pages 125-137.
    4. Hopkins, John L. & McKay, Judith, 2019. "Investigating ‘anywhere working’ as a mechanism for alleviating traffic congestion in smart cities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 258-272.
    5. Sanjeev Kumar & Ajay K. Singh, 2023. "Modeling the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity: evidence from Himachal Pradesh, India," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 521-548, June.
    6. Dissanayake, Sumali & Mahadevan, Renuka & Asafu-Adjaye, John, 2019. "Is there a role for trade liberalization in mitigating the impacts of climate change on agriculture?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 307-324.
    7. Sudeshna Paul & Athula Naranpanawa & Jay Bandaralage & Tapan Sarker, 2018. "Climate change, crop productivity and regional growth disparity in Bangladesh: What does a district-level regional CGE model tell us?," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201803, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    8. Nuñez, Hector M. & Chakrabortu, Lopamudra & Robles-Chavez, Jesus Eduardo, 2021. "Impacts of Weather Shocks on Crop Yields in Mexico," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 314988, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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