IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/oropre/v58y2010i3p515-528.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Impact of Forward Markets on Investments in Oligopolistic Markets with Reference to Electricity

Author

Listed:
  • Frederic Murphy

    (Fox School of Business and Management, Temple University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 19122)

  • Yves Smeers

    (CORE, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)

Abstract

Allaz and Vila made the seminal contribution that forward contracts mitigate market power on the spot market. This result is widely quoted and elaborated in studies of restructured power markets, where generators can potentially exploit the special characteristics of this industry in order to extract higher prices. Allaz-Vila established their result under the assumption that the production capacities of the players are infinite. We show that the Allaz-Vila result does not hold when capacities are endogenous and constraining generation. Specifically, a forward market can enhance or mitigate market power when capacities are endogenous and demand is unknown at the time of investment. We also show that forward markets do not mitigate market power when capacities are endogenous and demand is known at the time of investment. Our results complement other work that shows that forward markets systematically enhance market power in some symmetric capacity-constrained markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederic Murphy & Yves Smeers, 2010. "On the Impact of Forward Markets on Investments in Oligopolistic Markets with Reference to Electricity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:58:y:2010:i:3:p:515-528
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.1090.0753
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0753
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/opre.1090.0753?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Le Coq, Chloe & Orzen, Henrik, 2006. "Do forward markets enhance competition?: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 415-431, November.
    2. Paul Joskow & Jean Tirole, 2007. "Reliability and competitive electricity markets," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 60-84, March.
    3. Gregor, ZOETTL, 2008. "Investment decisions in liberalized electricity markets : A framework of peak load pricing with strategic firms," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2008029, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    4. James B. Bushnell & Erin T. Mansur & Celeste Saravia, 2008. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured US Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 237-266, March.
    5. Newbery, D., 2002. "Issues and Options for Restructuring Electricity Supply Industries," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0210, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Reynolds, Stanley S. & Wilson, Bart J., 2000. "Bertrand-Edgeworth Competition, Demand Uncertainty, and Asymmetric Outcomes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 122-141, May.
    7. Joshua S. Gans & Danny Price & Kim Woods, 1998. "Contracts and Electricity Pool Prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 23(1), pages 83-96, June.
    8. Frank Wolak, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Hedge Contracts on Bidding Behavior in a Competitive Electricity Market," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 1-39.
    9. Anette Boom & Stefan Buehler, 2007. "Restructuring Electricity Markets when Demand is Uncertain: Effects on Capacity Investments, Prices and Welfare," CIE Discussion Papers 2007-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Centre for Industrial Economics.
    10. Von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik M. & Fabra, Natalia & de Frutos, Maria-Angeles, 2008. "Investment Incentives and Auction Design in Electricity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 6626, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. David M. Newbery, 1998. "Competition, Contracts, and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(4), pages 726-749, Winter.
    12. Peter Cramton & Steven Stoft, 2006. "The Convergence of Market Designs for Adequate Generating Capacity," Papers of Peter Cramton 06mdfra, University of Maryland, Department of Economics - Peter Cramton, revised 2006.
    13. Catherine D. Wolfram, 1999. "Measuring Duopoly Power in the British Electricity Spot Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 805-826, September.
    14. Oren, Shmuel S., 2005. "Generation Adequacy via Call Options Obligations: Safe Passage to the Promised Land," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(9), pages 28-42, November.
    15. Jean J. Gabszewicz & Sougata Poddar, 1997. "Demand fluctuations and capacity utilization under duopoly," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 10(1), pages 131-146.
    16. Enzo Sauma & Shmuel Oren, 2006. "Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 358-387, November.
    17. Blaise Allaz & Jean-Luc Vila, 1993. "Cournot Competition, Forward Markets and Efficiency," Post-Print hal-00511806, HAL.
    18. Paul L. Joskow, 2008. "Lessons Learned from Electricity Market Liberalization," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 9-42.
    19. Paul Twomey & Richard Green & Karsten Neuhoff & David Newbery, 2005. "A Review of the Monitoring of Market Power: The Possible Roles of TSOs in Monitoring for Market Power Issues in Congested Transmission Systems," Working Papers 0502, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    20. Green, Richard J & Newbery, David M, 1992. "Competition in the British Electricity Spot Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 929-953, October.
    21. Green, Richard, 1999. "The Electricity Contract Market in England and Wales," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 107-124, March.
    22. Rajnish Kamat & Shmuel Oren, 2004. "Two-settlement Systems for Electricity Markets under Network Uncertainty and Market Power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 5-37, January.
    23. Liski, Matti & Montero, Juan-Pablo, 2006. "Forward trading and collusion in oligopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 212-230, November.
    24. Veronika Grimm & Gregor Zoettl, 2006. "Access to Commitment Devices Reduces Investment Incentives in Oligopoly," Working Paper Series in Economics 25, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    25. Frederic H. Murphy & Yves Smeers, 2005. "Generation Capacity Expansion in Imperfectly Competitive Restructured Electricity Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 646-661, August.
    26. Enzo Sauma & Shmuel Oren, 2006. "Proactive planning and valuation of transmission investments in restructured electricity markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 261-290, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiao Wang & Lima Zhao & Arnd Huchzermeier, 2021. "Operations‐Finance Interface in Risk Management: Research Evolution and Opportunities," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(2), pages 355-389, February.
    2. Filomena, Tiago Pascoal & Campos-Náñez, Enrique & Duffey, Michael Robert, 2014. "Technology selection and capacity investment under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 125-136.
    3. David P. Brown & David E. M. Sappington, 2023. "Employing gain-sharing regulation to promote forward contracting in the electricity sector," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 30-56, April.
    4. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Tanaka, Makoto & Chen, Yihsu, 2019. "Sustainable transmission planning in imperfectly competitive electricity industries: Balancing economic and environmental outcomes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 208-223.
    5. Oliveira, Fernando S. & Costa, Manuel L.G., 2018. "Capacity expansion under uncertainty in an oligopoly using indirect reinforcement-learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(3), pages 1039-1050.
    6. David P. Brown and Andrew Eckert, 2020. "Imperfect Competition in Electricity Markets with Renewable Generation: The Role of Renewable Compensation Policies," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 61-88.
    7. Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher, 2015. "Can price volatility enhance market power? The case of renewable technologies in competitive electricity markets," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 70-90.
    8. Huppmann, Daniel & Egerer, Jonas, 2015. "National-strategic investment in European power transmission capacity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(1), pages 191-203.
    9. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Electricity Market Structure Changes and Mergers: The Importance of Forward Commitments," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-137, February.
    10. Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Tanaka, Makoto & Chen, Yihsu, 2016. "Are targets for renewable portfolio standards too low? The impact of market structure on energy policy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(1), pages 328-341.
    11. Heikki Peura & Derek W. Bunn, 2021. "Renewable Power and Electricity Prices: The Impact of Forward Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 4772-4788, August.
    12. Afzal S. SIDDIQUI & TANAKA Makoto & Yihsu CHEN, 2017. "Sustainable Transmission Planning in Imperfectly Competitive Electricity Industries: Balancing economic efficiency and environmental outcomes," Discussion papers 17024, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Gal, Nurit & Milstein, Irena & Tishler, Asher & Woo, C.K., 2017. "Fuel cost uncertainty, capacity investment and price in a competitive electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 233-240.
    14. Hao, Peng & Guo, Jun-Peng & Chen, Yihsu & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2020. "Does a combined strategy outperform independent policies? Impact of incentive policies on renewable power generation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    15. Nadia Chernenko, 2013. "Market power issues in the reformed Russian electricity supply industry," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1358, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Desmond Cai & Anish Agarwal & Adam Wierman, 2020. "On the Inefficiency of Forward Markets in Leader–Follower Competition," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 35-52, January.
    17. Newberry, D., 2012. "The roubstness of agent-based models of electricity wholesale markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1228, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Darudi, Ali & Weigt, Hannes, 2019. "Renewable Support, Intermittency and Market Power: An Equilibrium Investment Approach," Working papers 2019/06, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    19. Petrella, Andrea & Sapio, Alessandro, 2012. "Assessing the impact of forward trading, retail liberalization, and white certificates on the Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 307-317.
    20. Walsh, Darragh & Malaguzzi Valeri, Laura & Di Cosmo, Valeria, 2016. "Strategic bidding, wind ownership and regulation in a decentralised electricity market," MPRA Paper 71502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Christian Winzer, 2013. "Robustness of Various Capacity Mechanisms to Regulatory Errors Abstract: In the EU, several governments have introduced or are contemplating a capacity mechanism to ensure adequate investment in gener," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1338, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    22. Fernández, Mauricio & Muñoz, Francisco D. & Moreno, Rodrigo, 2020. "Analysis of imperfect competition in natural gas supply contracts for electric power generation: A closed-loop approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    23. Liu, Cengceng & Li, Nan & Zha, Donglan, 2016. "On the impact of FIT policies on renewable energy investment: Based on the solar power support policies in China's power market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-267.
    24. Serra, Pablo, 2013. "Contract market power and its impact on the efficiency of the electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 653-662.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Desmond Cai & Anish Agarwal & Adam Wierman, 2020. "On the Inefficiency of Forward Markets in Leader–Follower Competition," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 35-52, January.
    2. Dressler, Luisa, 2016. "Support schemes for renewable electricity in the European Union: Producer strategies and competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 186-196.
    3. Guy Meunier, 2011. "Imperfect Competition and Long-term Contracts in Electricity Markets: Some Lessons from Theoretical Models," Chapters, in: Jean-Michel Glachant & Dominique Finon & Adrien de Hauteclocque (ed.), Competition, Contracts and Electricity Markets, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Meunier, Guy, 2010. "Capacity choice, technology mix and market power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1306-1315, November.
    5. Holmberg, Pär & Willems, Bert, 2015. "Relaxing competition through speculation: Committing to a negative supply slope," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 159(PA), pages 236-266.
    6. Andreas Ehrenmann & Yves Smeers, 2011. "Generation Capacity Expansion in a Risky Environment: A Stochastic Equilibrium Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1332-1346, December.
    7. Baldursson , Fridrik M. & von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik, 2007. "Vertical Integration and Long-Term Contracts in Risky Markets," Memorandum 01/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    8. Weigt, Hannes, 2009. "A Review of Liberalization and Modeling of Electricity Markets," MPRA Paper 65651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Electricity Market Structure Changes and Mergers: The Importance of Forward Commitments," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-137, February.
    10. Fabra, Natalia & de Frutos, Maria-Angeles, 2008. "On the Impact of Forward Contract Obligations in Multi-Unit Auctions," CEPR Discussion Papers 6756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. van Eijkel, Remco & Kuper, Gerard H. & Moraga-González, José L., 2016. "Do firms sell forward for strategic reasons? An application to the wholesale market for natural gas," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-35.
    12. Zöttl, Gregor, 2011. "On optimal scarcity prices," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 589-605, September.
    13. Ciarreta, Aitor & Nasirov, Shahriyar & Silva, Carlos, 2016. "The development of market power in the Spanish power generation sector: Perspectives after market liberalization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 700-710.
    14. de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza & Daglish, Toby, 2017. "Investing in vertical integration: electricity retail market participation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 355-365.
    15. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2017. "Electricity market mergers with endogenous forward contracting," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 269-310, June.
    16. Grimm, Veronika & Martin, Alexander & Weibelzahl, Martin & Zöttl, Gregor, 2014. "Transmission and Generation Investment in Electricity Markets: The Effects of Market Splitting and Network Fee Regimes," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 460, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    17. Simshauser, Paul & Tian, Yuan & Whish-Wilson, Patrick, 2015. "Vertical integration in energy-only electricity markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 35-56.
    18. Holmberg, Pär & Newbery, David, 2010. "The supply function equilibrium and its policy implications for wholesale electricity auctions," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 209-226, December.
    19. James Bushnell, 2007. "Oligopoly equilibria in electricity contract markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 225-245, December.
    20. James B. Bushnell & Erin T. Mansur & Celeste Saravia, 2008. "Vertical Arrangements, Market Structure, and Competition: An Analysis of Restructured US Electricity Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 237-266, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:58:y:2010:i:3:p:515-528. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.