The General Equilibrium Effects of Fiscal Policy with Government Debt Maturity

This paper highlights the importance of accounting for both the maturity structure of government debt and the composition of fiscal instruments when studying the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model featuring a debt maturity structure and six exogenous fiscal shocks spanning both the expenditure and revenue sides, we show that long-maturity debt systematically weakens the expansionary effects of fiscal policy under dovish monetary policy, particularly in response to increases in government purchases, government investment, and capital income tax cuts, where long-term financing leads to the significant crowding-out of private activity. In contrast, short-term debt financing yields output multipliers that often exceed unity. The maturity structure also alters the relative efficacy of fiscal instruments: while labor income tax cuts produce the largest multipliers under short-term debt, government purchases become more potent under long-term debt financing. We also show that the stark difference between short- and long-term debt becomes muted under a hawkish monetary regime. Our results have important policy implications, suggesting that the maturity composition of public debt should be carefully considered in the design of fiscal policy, particularly in high-debt economies.