Demand Forecast of Petroleum Product Consumption in the Chinese Transportation Industry
In this paper, petroleum product (mainly petrol and diesel) consumption in the transportation sector of China is analyzed. This was based on the Bayesian linear regression theory and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC), establishing a demand-forecast model of petrol and diesel consumption introduced into the analytical framework with explanatory variables of urbanization level, per capita GDP, turnover of passengers (freight) in aggregate (TPA, TFA), and civilian vehicle number (CVN) and explained variables of petrol and diesel consumption. Furthermore, we forecast the future consumer demand for oil products during “The 12th Five Year Plan” (2011–2015) based on the historical data covering from 1985 to 2009, finding that urbanization is the most sensitive factor, with a strong marginal effect on petrol and diesel consumption in this sector. From the viewpoint of prediction interval value, urbanization expresses the lower limit of the predicted results, and CVN the upper limit of the predicted results. Predicted value from other independent variables is in the range of predicted values which display a validation range and reference standard being much more credible for policy makers. Finally, a comparison between the predicted results from autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) and others is made to assess our task.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leung, Guy C.K., 2010. "China's oil use, 1990-2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 932-944, February.
- Forouzanfar, Mehdi & Doustmohammadi, A. & Hasanzadeh, Samira & Shakouri G, H., 2012. "Transport energy demand forecast using multi-level genetic programming," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 496-503.
- Hou, Aijun & Suardi, Sandy, 2012. "A nonparametric GARCH model of crude oil price return volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 618-626.
- Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal, 2011.
"Forecasting world and regional aviation Jet-Fuel demands to the mid term (2025),"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/6792, Paris Dauphine University.
- Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
- Li, Zheng & Rose, John M. & Hensher, David A., 2010. "Forecasting automobile petrol demand in Australia: An evaluation of empirical models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 16-38, January.
- Ali Ahmed, Huson Joher & Bashar, Omar H.M.N. & Wadud, I.K.M. Mokhtarul, 2012. "The transitory and permanent volatility of oil prices: What implications are there for the US industrial production?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 447-455.
- Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C., 2011.
"Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020,"
Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6686-6696.
- Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2011. "Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand: An Outlook to 2020," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 132, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2010.
"Modelling and Forecasting Turkish Residential Electricity Demand,"
Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS)
131, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C, 2011. "Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3117-3127, June.
- Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
- Jensen, Thomas C. & Møller, Flemming, 2010. "Incorporating the value of changes in price volatility into cost-benefit analysis--an application to oil prices in the transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 573-579, January.
- Anable, Jillian & Brand, Christian & Tran, Martino & Eyre, Nick, 2012. "Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 125-138.
- Kumar, Satish & Kwon, Hyouk-Tae & Choi, Kwang-Ho & Hyun Cho, Jae & Lim, Wonsub & Moon, Il, 2011. "Current status and future projections of LNG demand and supplies: A global prospective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4097-4104, July.
- Kok, Robert & Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2011. "Cost-effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation in transport: A review of methodological approaches and their impact," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7776-7793.
- Larsson, Karl & Nossman, Marcus, 2011. "Jumps and stochastic volatility in oil prices: Time series evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 504-514, May.
- Aftabuzzaman, Md & Mazloumi, Ehsan, 2011. "Achieving sustainable urban transport mobility in post peak oil era," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 695-702, September.
- Meyer, Ina & Kaniovski, Serguei & Scheffran, Jürgen, 2012. "Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-74.
- Liimatainen, Heikki & Pöllänen, Markus, 2010. "Trends of energy efficiency in Finnish road freight transport 1995-2009 and forecast to 2016," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7676-7686, December.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Correlations and volatility spillovers between oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 248-255.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:5:y:2012:i:3:p:577-598:d:16412. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (XML Conversion Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.