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Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)

Author

Listed:
  • Benoît Cheze

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Pascal Gastineau

    (IFSTTAR/LTE - Laboratoire Transport et Environnement - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - Université de Lyon)

  • Julien Chevallier

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the 'Traffic Efficiency' method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1999). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoît Cheze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Post-Print hal-00990189, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00990189
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.049
    as

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