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A market-based framework for CO2 emissions reduction in China's civil aviation industry

Author

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  • Chen, Dan
  • Yin, Jianan
  • Xu, Feng
  • Huang, Chen
  • Li, Ziyu

Abstract

This paper proposes a novel aviation CO2 emissions reduction method by introducing a market-based incentive mechanism. An aviation carbon emissions prediction model is proposed to characterize both the microscopic flight dynamics and the macroscopic air traffic demand trend. Based on emissions prediction, a linear climate response model is applied to evaluate the environmental impact of the aviation carbon emissions. Finally, a market-based framework for aviation CO2 emissions reduction is established based on a two-phase carbon trading model, which provides a piecewise charge method through emission taxation and cap-and-trade. A case study is carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework using a real-world dataset from the Hefei Air Traffic Control Zone in China. Three scenarios are defined to describe the possible development speed of sustainable aviation fuel application in the future: not applied, medium-speed development, and high-speed development. The results show that the carbon peak will be reached in 2025 in the high-speed development scenario, when the emission amount and associated environmental impact will be reduced by 23.7% and 22.3%, respectively. Thus, the market-based framework proposed in this paper can effectively reduce aviation CO2 emissions and mitigate the effects of global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Dan & Yin, Jianan & Xu, Feng & Huang, Chen & Li, Ziyu, 2023. "A market-based framework for CO2 emissions reduction in China's civil aviation industry," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 150-158.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:143:y:2023:i:c:p:150-158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.09.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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