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International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?


  • Macintosh, Andrew
  • Wallace, Lailey


International aviation is growing rapidly, resulting in rising aviation greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns about the growth trajectory of the industry and emissions have led to calls for market measures such as emissions trading and carbon levies to be introduced to restrict demand and prompt innovation. This paper provides an overview of the science on aviation's contribution to climate change, analyses key trends in the industry since 1990, projects international civil aviation emissions to 2025 and analyses the emission intensity improvements that are necessary to offset rising international demand. The findings suggest international aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will increase by more than 110 per cent between 2005 and 2025 (from 416Â Mt to between 876 and 1013Â Mt) and that it is unlikely emissions could be stabilised at levels consistent with risk averse climate targets without restricting demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:1:p:264-273

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
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    1. Turan, Onder, 2015. "An exergy way to quantify sustainability metrics for a high bypass turbofan engine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 722-736.
    2. Benoît Chèze & Pascal Gastineau & Julien Chevallier, 2011. "Air traffic energy efficiency differs from place to place: New results from a macro-level approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 126-127, pages 151-177.
    3. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
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    7. Ekholm, Tommi & Soimakallio, Sampo & Moltmann, Sara & Höhne, Niklas & Syri, Sanna & Savolainen, Ilkka, 2010. "Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1797-1810, April.
    8. Alonso, G. & Benito, A. & Lonza, L. & Kousoulidou, M., 2014. "Investigations on the distribution of air transport traffic and CO2 emissions within the European Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 85-93.
    9. González, Rodrigo & Hosoda, Eiji B., 2016. "Environmental impact of aircraft emissions and aviation fuel tax in Japan," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 234-240.
    10. Li, Ye & Wang, Yan-zhang & Cui, Qiang, 2016. "Has airline efficiency affected by the inclusion of aviation into European Union Emission Trading Scheme? Evidences from 22 airlines during 2008–2012," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 8-22.
    11. McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
    12. Benoit Cheze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to effectively lead the air transport to a sustainable development in the mid-term (2025)?," Working Papers 1207, Chaire Economie du climat.
    13. Benoît Chèze & Julien Chevallier & Pascal Gastineau, 2012. "Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-35, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Amizadeh, Fatemeh & Alonso, Gustavo & Benito, Arturo & Morales-Alonso, Gustavo, 2016. "Analysis of the recent evolution of commercial air traffic CO2 emissions and fleet utilization in the six largest national markets of the European Union," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 9-19.
    15. Liu, Guangrui & Yan, Beibei & Chen, Guanyi, 2013. "Technical review on jet fuel production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 59-70.
    16. Hu, Jing & Crijns-Graus, Wina & Lam, Long & Gilbert, Alyssa, 2015. "Ex-ante evaluation of EU ETS during 2013–2030: EU-internal abatement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 152-163.
    17. Bakhat, Mohcine & Rosselló, Jaume, 2011. "Estimation of tourism-induced electricity consumption: The case study of Balearics Islands, Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 437-444, May.
    18. repec:eee:transa:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:525-540 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Zhou, Wenji & Wang, Tao & Yu, Yadong & Chen, Dingjiang & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Scenario analysis of CO2 emissions from China’s civil aviation industry through 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 100-108.
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    21. Sandrine Meyer & Julien Matheys & Annalia Bernardini & Tom Van Lier & Andrew Ferrone & Philippe Marbaix & Patrick Grenier, 2012. "Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy: Integration Options and Impacts: Phase II: ABC Impacts," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/137072, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    22. Yang Xubiao, 2014. "Alternative scheme of inclusion of international aviation in EU ETS and Chinese strategy," Journal of Social Sciences (COES&RJ-JSS), , vol. 3(3), pages 426-438, July.
    23. Macintosh, Andrew, 2010. "Keeping warming within the 2 °C limit after Copenhagen," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2964-2975, June.
    24. Vespermann, Jan & Wald, Andreas, 2011. "Much Ado about Nothing? – An analysis of economic impacts and ecologic effects of the EU-emission trading scheme in the aviation industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1066-1076.
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