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The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

  • Dubois, Ghislain
  • Peeters, Paul
  • Ceron, Jean-Paul
  • Gössling, Stefan
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    Much of global passenger transport is linked to tourism. The sector is therefore of interest in studying global mobility trends and transport-related emissions. In 2005, tourism was responsible for around 5% of all CO2 emissions, of which 75% were caused by passenger transport. Given the rapid growth in tourism, with 1.6 billion international tourist arrivals predicted by 2020 (up from 903 million in 2007), it is clear that the sector will contribute to rapidly growing emission levels, and increasingly interfere with global climate policy. This is especially true under climate stabilisation and “avoiding dangerous climate change” objectives, implying global emission reductions in the order of −50% to −80% by 2050, compared to 2000. Based on three backcasting scenarios, and using techniques integrating quantitative and qualitative elements, this paper discusses the options for emission reductions in the tourism sector and the consequences of mitigation for global tourism-related mobility by 2050. It ends with a discussion of the policy implications of the results.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 45 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 10 ()
    Pages: 1031-1042

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:10:p:1031-1042
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    1. Tight, M.R. & Bristow, A.L. & Pridmore, A. & May, A.D., 2005. "What is a sustainable level of CO2 emissions from transport activity in the UK in 2050?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 235-244, May.
    2. Akerman, Jonas & Hojer, Mattias, 2006. "How much transport can the climate stand?--Sweden on a sustainable path in 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1944-1957, September.
    3. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
    4. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 1999. "Global passenger travel: implications for carbon dioxide emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 657-679.
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