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Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)

  • Chèze, Benoît
  • Gastineau, Pascal
  • Chevallier, Julien

This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the 'Traffic Efficiency' method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1999). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511004496
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 5147-5158

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5147-5158
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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  1. Dermot Gately, 1988. "Taking Off: The U.S. Demand for Air Travel and Jet Fuel," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 63-91.
  2. Nygren, Emma & Aleklett, Kjell & Höök, Mikael, 2009. "Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4003-4010, October.
  3. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  4. Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
  5. Mohammad Mazraati, 2010. "World aviation fuel demand outlook," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 34(1), pages 42-72, 03.
  6. Vedantham, Anu & Oppenheimer, Michael, 1998. "Long-term scenarios for aviation: Demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 625-641, July.
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