IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v11y2021i6p569-d578772.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield in Malaysia: A Panel Data Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Boon Teck Tan

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Pulau Pinang 11800, Malaysia)

  • Pei Shan Fam

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Pulau Pinang 11800, Malaysia)

  • R. B. Radin Firdaus

    (School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Pulau Pinang 11800, Malaysia)

  • Mou Leong Tan

    (Geoinformatic Unit, Geography Section, School of Humanities, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Pulau Pinang 11800, Malaysia)

  • Mahinda Senevi Gunaratne

    (School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Pulau Pinang 11800, Malaysia)

Abstract

Climate change is a global problem since many countries worldwide are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters. Numerous climate models in various studies project a decline in agricultural productivity that will mainly be due to excessive heat in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in Southeast Asia. As a Southeast Asian country, Malaysia is no exception to this problem. Hence, the present study aimed to examine the impact of climate change on rice yields in Malaysia. A panel data approach was adopted using data from 1987 to 2017 on eight granary areas in Peninsular Malaysia. The main objectives were to assess the impact of climate variables (i.e., minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation) on rice yield and the variance of the impact during the main season and off-season. Our regression results indicate that precipitation was not statistically significant in all model specifications for both the main and off-season. While the maximum temperature was found to be negatively associated with yield during the off-season, the minimum temperature showed a positive effect in both cropping seasons. We used the HadGEM3-GC31 N512 resolution model based on the high-emission Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 8.5 scenario (SSPs-8.5) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to project future climate change in 2030 and 2040. The projected results indicate that rice yield would show a more positive trend by 2040 when compared to the previous decade, ranging from −0.02 to 19.85% during the main season and −2.77 to 7.41% during the off-season. Although rice yield is likely to increase in certain areas, other areas are projected to experience negative effects. Hence, adaptation at the farm level remains crucial, specifically during the off-season, since climate change could widen the gaps in rice yields between cropping seasons and among granary areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Boon Teck Tan & Pei Shan Fam & R. B. Radin Firdaus & Mou Leong Tan & Mahinda Senevi Gunaratne, 2021. "Impact of Climate Change on Rice Yield in Malaysia: A Panel Data Analysis," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:11:y:2021:i:6:p:569-:d:578772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/11/6/569/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/11/6/569/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. W. Arnell & J. A. Lowe & A. J. Challinor & T. J. Osborn, 2019. "Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 377-391, August.
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2015. "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(6-10), pages 1089-1117, December.
    3. Shreekant Gupta & Partha Sen & Suchita Srinivasan, 2014. "Impact Of Climate Change On The Indian Economy: Evidence From Food Grain Yields," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(02), pages 1-29.
    4. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    5. Daniel Hoechle, 2007. "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, September.
    6. Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker & Khorshed Alam & Jeff Gow, 2014. "Assessing the effects of climate change on rice yields: An econometric investigation using Bangladeshi panel data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 405-416.
    7. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    8. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao & Bin Peng, 2016. "Testing Cross-Sectional Correlation in Large Panel Data Models with Serial Correlation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-24, November.
    9. Benjamin Born & Jörg Breitung, 2016. "Testing for Serial Correlation in Fixed-Effects Panel Data Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 1290-1316, August.
    10. E. Marie Muehe & Tianmei Wang & Carolin F. Kerl & Britta Planer-Friedrich & Scott Fendorf, 2019. "Rice production threatened by coupled stresses of climate and soil arsenic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    11. Sangam Shrestha & Proloy Deb & Thi Bui, 2016. "Adaptation strategies for rice cultivation under climate change in Central Vietnam," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 15-37, January.
    12. Santosh Poudel & Koji Kotani, 2013. "Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 327-355, January.
    13. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    14. Elodie Blanc & John Reilly, 2017. "Approaches to Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture: An Overview of the Debate," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(2), pages 247-257.
    15. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Saeed Solaymani, 2023. "Impacts of Environmental Variables on Rice Production in Malaysia," World, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-17, July.
    2. Yeotae Yun, 2023. "Changes in the Growth and Yield of an Extremely Early-Maturing Rice Variety According to Transplanting Density," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Mahinda Senevi Gunaratne & R. B. Radin Firdaus & Shamila Indika Rathnasooriya, 2021. "Climate change and food security in Sri Lanka: towards food sovereignty," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P. & Köhler, Ekkehard A., 2016. "(Un-)Sustainability of Public Finances in German Laender: A Panel Time Series Approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 254-265.
    2. Ahmad, Munir & Zhu, Xiwei & Wu, Yiyun, 2022. "The criticality of international tourism and technological innovation for carbon neutrality across regional development levels," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    3. Raju Guntukula & Phanindra Goyari, 2020. "Climate Change Effects on the Crop Yield and Its Variability in Telangana, India," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 8(1), pages 119-148, June.
    4. Sudatta Bharati Mohapatra & Nirmal Chandra Kar, 2022. "Revisiting the Long-Run Dynamic Linkage between Dividends and Share Price with Advanced Panel Econometrics Techniques," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, October.
    5. Mamba, Essotanam & Ali, Essossinam, 2022. "Do agricultural exports enhance agricultural (economic) growth? Lessons from ECOWAS countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 257-267.
    6. Jos Alberto Fuinhas & Ant nio Cardoso Marques & Alcino Pinto Couto, 2015. "Oil-Growth Nexus in Oil Producing Countries: Macro Panel Evidence," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 148-163.
    7. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2020. "Long-run relationship between exports and imports: current account sustainability tests for the EU," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 19(2), pages 155-170, May.
    8. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "The optimum size of public education spending: panel data evidence," MPRA Paper 106847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Chen, Chaoyi & Pinar, Mehmet & Stengos, Thanasis, 2021. "Determinants of renewable energy consumption: Importance of democratic institutions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 75-83.
    10. Yang, Shuangpeng & umar, Muhammad, 2022. "How globalization is reshaping the environmental quality in G7 economies in the presence of renewable energy initiatives?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 128-135.
    11. Ariff, Mohamed & Zarei, Alireza & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2021. "Monitoring exchange rate instability in 12 selected Islamic economies," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    12. Mushtaq Ahmad Malik & Tariq Masood, 2022. "Dynamics of Output Growth and Convergence in the Middle East and North African Countries: Heterogeneous Panel ARDL Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(2), pages 1444-1469, June.
    13. Delphin Kamanda Espoir & Nicholas Ngepah, 2021. "Income distribution and total factor productivity: a cross-country panel cointegration analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 661-698, October.
    14. Eunmo YANG & Hojoong BAE & Doojin RYU, 2022. "What Makes the Level of Particulate Matter Emissions Worse in Korea?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 128-143, October.
    15. She, Weijun & Mabrouk, Fatma, 2023. "Impact of natural resources and globalization on green economic recovery: Role of FDI and green innovations in BRICS economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Munir Ahmad & Heng Li & Muhammad Khalid Anser & Abdul Rehman & Zeeshan Fareed & Qingyou Yan & Gul Jabeen, 2021. "Are the intensity of energy use, land agglomeration, CO2 emissions, and economic progress dynamically interlinked across development levels?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 32(4), pages 690-721, June.
    17. Neves, Sónia Almeida & Marques, António Cardoso & Patrício, Margarida, 2020. "Determinants of CO2 emissions in European Union countries: Does environmental regulation reduce environmental pollution?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 114-125.
    18. Themba Gilbert Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "Public Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in the Euro Area: A Dynamic Panel ARDL Approach," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(3), pages 291-310, September.
    19. Fraga, Jefferson Souza & Resende, Marco Flávio da Cunha, 2022. "Infrastructure, conventions and private investment: An empirical investigation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 351-361.
    20. Škare, Marinko & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata, 2023. "Are we making progress on decarbonization? A panel heterogeneous study of the long-run relationship in selected economies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:11:y:2021:i:6:p:569-:d:578772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.