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Impact of Climate Change on the Indian Economy-Evidence from Foodgrain Yields

Author

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  • SHREEKANT GUPTA

    (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, Delhi, India & LKY School of Public Policy (NUS))

  • PARTHA SEN

    (South Asian University)

  • SUCHITA SRINIVASAN

    (American Express)

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of climate change on foodgrain yields in India, namely riceand millets. We estimate a crop-specific agricultural production function with exogenous climate variables, namely, precipitation and temperature and control for key inputs such as irrigation, fertilizer and labour. Our analysis is at the district level using a panel dataset for physical yield (output per hectare – gross cropped area) for the period 1966-99. Thus, we eschew crop simulation approaches that rely on experimental data. We do not also estimate reduced form relationships between economic variables such as profits or the monetary value of yield and weather measures. Consistent with other studies at the district and state level we find significant impacts of climate change (temperature and precipitation) on Indian agriculture. The implication of our results for inter-state disparities and corrective measures is elaborated.

Suggested Citation

  • Shreekant Gupta & Partha Sen & Suchita Srinivasan, 2012. "Impact of Climate Change on the Indian Economy-Evidence from Foodgrain Yields," Working papers 218, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:cde:cdewps:218
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lahiri, Ashik Kumar & Roy, Prannoy, 1985. "Rainfall and supply-response : A study of rice in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2-3), pages 315-334, August.
    2. Kanwar, Sunil, 2006. "Relative profitability, supply shifters and dynamic output response, in a developing economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 67-88, January.
    3. Barrios, Salvador & Bertinelli, Luisito & Strobl, Eric, 2006. "Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 357-371, November.
    4. K.S. Kavi Kumar, 2009. "Climate Sensitivity of Indian Agriculture," Working Papers 2009-043, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    5. Richard Hornbeck, 2012. "The Enduring Impact of the American Dust Bowl: Short- and Long-Run Adjustments to Environmental Catastrophe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1477-1507, June.
    6. Hemanshu Kumar & Rohini Somanathan, 2009. "Mapping Indian Districts Across Census Years, 1971-2001," Working papers 176, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    7. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    8. Dinar, A. & Mendelsohn, R. & Evenson, R. & Parikh, J. & Sanghi, A. & Kumar, K. & McKinsey, J. & Lonergen, S., 1998. "Measuring the Impact of CLimate Change on Indian Agriculture," Papers 402, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    9. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    10. Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon & Sanjay Kalra, 2010. "Growth Convergence and Spillovers among Indian States; What Matters? What Does Not?," IMF Working Papers 10/96, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Catriona Purfield, 2006. "Mind the Gap—Is Economic Growth in India Leaving Some States Behind?," IMF Working Papers 06/103, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Maximilian Auffhammer & V. Ramanathan & Jeffrey Vincent, 2012. "Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(2), pages 411-424, March.
    13. Temesgen Tadesse Deressa & Rashid M. Hassan, 2009. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(4), pages 529-554, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. V. Saravanakumar, "undated". "Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Food Crops in Tamil Nadu, India," Working papers 91, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    2. Gupta, Shreekant & Sen, Partha & Verma, Saumya, 2016. "Impact of Climate Change on Foodgrain Yields in India," CEI Working Paper Series 2015-9, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Agricultural Impacts; Developing Countries;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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