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Efectos de los cambios de la política monetaria en las dinámicas del tipo de cambio, el dinero y los precios en México (1945-2000)

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  • Garcés Díaz, Daniel Guillermo

    (Banco de México)

Abstract

This paper shows that an economic policy change in 1982 brought about a conspicuous alteration in the relationship between money, prices and the exchange rate in Mexico. Before that year, the long-run demand for currency was the velocity equation, and inflation was driven mainly by the money gap. After a striking changeover, from 1983 until 2000 the demand for currency took a very different form, and inflation was determined by the markup without an explicit effect from money. However, the long-run relationship that links the levels of output, the exchange rate and foreign prices with that of nominal money holds for the whole sample.// El presente artículo demuestra que un cambio de política economica en 1982 produjo una modificación notoria en la relación entre el dinero, los precios y el tipo de cambio en México. Antes de ese año, la demanda de dinero de largo plazo tenía la forma de la ecuación cuantitativa del dinero, y la inflación estaba impulsada principalmente por la brecha monetaria. Después de una interesante mutación, desde 1983 y hasta el final de la muestra la demanda de moneda local tomó una estructura muy diferente, y la inflación pasó a ser determinada por el margen del nivel de precios con respecto a los precios externos y los salario sin un efecto explícito del dinero. Sin embargo, la relación de largo plazo que vincula los niveles del producto, del tipo de cambio y de los precios externos con la cantidad nominal de dinero se mantiene para todo el periodo de análisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Garcés Díaz, Daniel Guillermo, 2008. "Efectos de los cambios de la política monetaria en las dinámicas del tipo de cambio, el dinero y los precios en México (1945-2000)," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(299), pages 683-713, julio-sep.
  • Handle: RePEc:elt:journl:v:75:y:2008:i:299:p:683-713
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20430/ete.v75i299.416
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    File URL: http://www.eltrimestreeconomico.com.mx/index.php/te/article/view/416/461
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    money demand; PPC; inflation; cointegration; structural breaks; demanda de dinero; PPC; inflación; cointegración; cambios estructurales;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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