Demand forecasting of diesel passenger car considering consumer preference and government regulation in South Korea
Changing market regulations in South Korea have allowed diesel-fueled passenger cars in the domestic market. The diffusion of diesel cars is tied to issues of environmental impact, energy supply and demand, and changes in tax revenue. Policymakers can influence demand for diesel vehicles to protect social welfare and to observe international environmental protection laws. On the supply side, carmakers need to know consumer preferences regarding new vehicles to arrive at development strategies. This study uses microsimulated demand forecasting to address these issues and predict consumer demand for diesel passenger cars. The model accommodates governmental policies and car attributes such as price and engine efficiency. We find that consumers will likely prefer diesel passenger cars to gasoline ones due to the low operation costs of the former in spite of high purchase price when diesel is relatively cheaper than gasoline. Finally we find that diesel passenger cars will capture a 42% market penetration ratio under the pricing system suggested by the Ministry of Environment of Korea.
Volume (Year): 43 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fernando San Miguel & Mandy Ryan & Emma McIntosh, 2000. "Applying conjoint analysis in economic evaluations: an application to menorrhagia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 823-833.
- Slothuus, Ulla & Larsen, Mette L. & Junker, Peter, 2002. "The contingent ranking method--a feasible and valid method when eliciting preferences for health care?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 54(10), pages 1601-1609, May.
- John Calfee & Clifford Winston & Randolph Stempski, 2001. "Econometric Issues In Estimating Consumer Preferences From Stated Preference Data: A Case Study Of The Value Of Automobile Travel Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 699-707, November.
- Batt, Carl E & Katz, James E, 1997. "A conjoint model of enhanced voice mail services. Implications for new service development and forecasting," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(8), pages 743-760, October.
- Roe, Brian & Boyle, Kevin J. & Teisl, Mario F., 1996. "Using Conjoint Analysis to Derive Estimates of Compensating Variation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 145-159, September.
- Becky Loo & S. Wong & Timothy Hau, 2006. "Introducing alternative fuel vehicles in Hong Kong: views from the public light bus industry," Transportation, Springer, vol. 33(6), pages 605-619, November.
- McCarthy, Patrick S. & Tay, Richard S., 1998. "New Vehicle Consumption and Fuel Efficiency: A Nested Logit Approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 39-51, March.
- Lee, Myung-Kyoon, 2005. "Reviewing tax system and its reform plan for the fuel market in South Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 475-482, March.
- Bunch, David S. & Bradley, Mark & Golob, Thomas F. & Kitamura, Ryuichi & Occhiuzzo, Gareth P., 1993. "Demand for clean-fuel vehicles in California: A discrete-choice stated preference pilot project," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 237-253, May.
- Hensher, David A., 1982. "Functional measurement, individual preference and discrete-choice modelling: Theory and application," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 323-335, December.
- Bolduc, Denis, 1999. "A practical technique to estimate multinomial probit models in transportation," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 63-79, February.
- Beggs, S. & Cardell, S. & Hausman, J., 1981. "Assessing the potential demand for electric cars," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, September.
- Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S. & Golob, Thomas F. & Ren, Weiping, 1996. "A Transaction Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0244r8g2, University of California Transportation Center.
- Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
- Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
- Brownstone, David & Bunch, David S & Golob, Thomas F & Ren, Weiping, 1996. "A Transactions Choice Model for Forecasting Demand for Alternative-Fuel Vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3sm7w9zk, University of California Transportation Center.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:43:y:2009:i:4:p:420-429. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.