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Statistical assessment and analyses of the determinants of transportation sector gasoline demand in Jordan

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  • Al-Ghandoor, Ahmed
  • Jaber, Jamal
  • Al-Hinti, Ismael
  • Abdallat, Yousef

Abstract

The main objectives of this study are to analyze past gasoline consumption in Jordan’s transportation sector and to identify main factors affecting its future demand. The sector is responsible for 39% of the total final energy consumption in Jordan, and is nearly totally dependent on oil consumption. The structure of this sector is analyzed with focus on passenger cars which represent 65% of total vehicles, and are responsible for nearly all of the national gasoline fuel demand. To achieve these objectives, the study develops a multi linear regression model using different independent variables based on 22-year historical data between years 1988 and 2009 refined from scattered data sources. The final model includes only the number of registered vehicles, income level, and gasoline price variables. A number of policy gaps are identified as contributors to the low efficiency composition of the fleet in terms of engine size, composition, availability of public transport, fuel prices, vehicle age, and type of ignition. To illustrate the importance of integrating energy policies within national energy plans, the impact of ending subsidies of gasoline was investigated and found to be significant. Without such policies, gasoline consumptions are predicted to rise by 1.81%/year. However, if such policies are implemented, over the same period, gasoline consumptions are forecasted to ascend at a lower rate of 0.53%/year.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Ghandoor, Ahmed & Jaber, Jamal & Al-Hinti, Ismael & Abdallat, Yousef, 2013. "Statistical assessment and analyses of the determinants of transportation sector gasoline demand in Jordan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 129-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:50:y:2013:i:c:p:129-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2013.01.022
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    1. Turgut Ozkan & Gozde Yanginlar & Salih Kalayci, 2019. "Testing the Transportation-induced Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: Evidence from Eight Developed and Developing Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(1), pages 174-183.
    2. Commander, Simon & Nikoloski, Zlatko & Vagliasindi, Maria, 2015. "Estimating the Size of External Effects of Energy Subsidies," IZA Discussion Papers 8865, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Xie, Chunping & Hawkes, Adam D., 2015. "Estimation of inter-fuel substitution possibilities in China's transport industry using ridge regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 260-267.
    4. Commander,Simon John & Nikoloski,Zlatko Slobodan & Vagliasindi,Maria, 2015. "Estimating the size of external effects of energy subsidies in transport and agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7227, The World Bank.
    5. Ben Abdallah, Khaled & Belloumi, Mounir & De Wolf, Daniel, 2015. "International comparisons of energy and environmental efficiency in the road transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2087-2101.

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