IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceco/v87y2020ics2214804319304197.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

To decrease or not to decrease: The impact of zero and negative interest rates on investment decisions

Author

Listed:
  • David-Pur, Lior
  • Galil, Koresh
  • Rosenboim, Mosi

Abstract

The suggestion to implement a negative monetary policy has divided economists and politicians. The effects of this experiment on the willingness of individuals and financial intermediaries to borrow and spend money and increase their risk are controversial. To provide insight into the debate, we provide experimental evidence revealing two important results. First, zero interest rates are more efficient than negative interest rates in terms of the impact on the willingness of individuals to borrow money and take risks. We suggest two behavioral explanations for this result. Second, we find no statistical difference between the effect that positive and negative interest rates have on the change in the allocation of risky assets in investment portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • David-Pur, Lior & Galil, Koresh & Rosenboim, Mosi, 2020. "To decrease or not to decrease: The impact of zero and negative interest rates on investment decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:87:y:2020:i:c:s2214804319304197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2020.101571
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214804319304197
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.socec.2020.101571?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2018. "A Model of Monetary Policy and Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 317-373, February.
    2. Botond Kőszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2006. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1133-1165.
    3. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2019. "Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3728-3761.
    4. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2013. "Salience and Consumer Choice," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(5), pages 803-843.
    5. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    6. Di Maggio, Marco & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2017. "The unintended consequences of the zero lower bound policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 59-80.
    7. Kristina Shampanier & Nina Mazar & Dan Ariely, 2007. "Zero as a Special Price: The True Value of Free Products," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(6), pages 742-757, 11-12.
    8. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    9. Jens H. E. Christensen & Mark M. Spiegel, 2019. "Negative Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations in Japan," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    11. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Shavit, Tal & Benzion, Uri & Shapir, Offer Moshe & Galil, Koresh, 2013. "Are time preferences for risky outcomes, riskless outcomes and commodities really different?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 512-514.
    13. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533, September.
    14. Acharya, Viral & Naqvi, Hassan, 2019. "On reaching for yield and the coexistence of bubbles and negative bubbles," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-10.
    15. Leonardo Gambacorta, 2009. "Monetary policy and the risk-taking channel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    16. Morten Linnemann Bech & Aytek Malkhozov, 2016. "How have central banks implemented negative policy rates?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    17. Jaewon Choi & Mathias Kronlund, 2018. "Reaching for Yield in Corporate Bond Mutual Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(5), pages 1930-1965.
    18. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    19. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang & Tano Santos, 2001. "Prospect Theory and Asset Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 1-53.
    20. Israel, Avi & Rosenboim, Mosi & Shavit, Tal, 2014. "Using priming manipulations to affect time preferences and risk aversion: An experimental study," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 36-43.
    21. Ganzach, Yoav & Wohl, Avi, 2018. "A behavioral theory of the effect of the risk-free rate on the demand for risky assets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 23-27.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Malgorzata Zaleska, 2022. "Reaction of the National Bank of Poland to the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 938-954.
    2. D’Hondt, Catherine & De Winne, Rudy & Todorovic, Aleksandar, 2021. "Target Returns and Negative Interest Rates," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021011, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    3. Corneille, O. & D’Hondt, C. & De Winne, R. & Efendic, E. & Todorovic, A., 2021. "What leads people to tolerate negative interest rates on their savings?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    2. Bongiovanni, Alessio & Reghezza, Alessio & Santamaria, Riccardo & Williams, Jonathan, 2021. "Do negative interest rates affect bank risk-taking?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 350-364.
    3. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2018. "Loss Aversion and Search for Yield in Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    4. Campbell, John Y. & Sigalov, Roman, 2022. "Portfolio choice with sustainable spending: A model of reaching for yield," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 188-206.
    5. Whelsy Boungou, 2019. "Negative Interest Rates, Bank Profitability and Risk-taking," Working Papers hal-03456106, HAL.
    6. Agur, Itai, 2019. "Monetary and macroprudential policy coordination among multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 192-209.
    7. Maximilian Konradt, 2023. "Do pension funds reach for yield? Evidence from a new database," IHEID Working Papers 01-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    8. Lahav, Yaron & Benzion, Uri, 2022. "What happens to investment choices when interest rates change? An experimental study," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 471-481.
    9. Grandi, Pietro & Guille, Marianne, 2023. "Banks, deposit rigidity and negative rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Maximilian Grimm & Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability," Working Paper Series 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Francesco Bianchi & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Asset Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 967-1017, April.
    12. Fernando Avalos & Emmanuel C Mamatzakis, 2018. "Euro area unconventional monetary policy and bank resilience," BIS Working Papers 754, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Warinthip Worasak & Nuwat Nookhwun & Pongpitch Amatyakul, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Thai Corporate Bond Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 186, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Bubeck, Johannes & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks' Risk‐Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(S1), pages 197-231.
    15. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-372, June.
    16. Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 116-140.
    17. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.
    18. Dang, Van Dan & Dang, Van Cuong, 2021. "Liquidity injection, bank lending, and security holdings: The asymmetric effects in Vietnam," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    19. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Huang, Yiping & Li, Xiang & Wang, Chu, 2021. "What does peer-to-peer lending evidence say about the Risk-Taking Channel of monetary policy?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment decision; Asset allocation; Negative interest rate policy; Zero interest rate policy; Reaching for yield;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceco:v:87:y:2020:i:c:s2214804319304197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620175 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.